Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Fed Minutes Weigh, Can Gold Hold $4,100?

Gold: Fed Minutes Keep December Tightening Risk Alive

While U.S. financial conditions remain tight, Gold’s fundamental backdrop is underpinned by persistent institutional demand. The FED’s September meeting minutes showed all participants supported a 0.25% increase to the fed funds rate within the range of 3.75-4.00%. While the majority of the participants expected another increase to be appropriate prior to year-end. Employment and inflation data for September was weaker, which prompted a decrease in the odds of an October rate hike. Currently, markets price in an 18% chance of a hike in October and an 80% chance for a 0.25% increase in December.

Higher Treasury yields continue to drive gold prices lower. The U.S. 10-year yield is near 5.3%, and the U.S. Dollar is near a 18-month high. At these levels, the opportunity cost of owning Gold is high.

Resilient investment demand continued for Gold in Q3. Global gold ETFs attracted a record $31 billion during the quarter. Holdings are at a new all-time high of 4,256 tonnes.

Silver: Structural Deficit Persists Despite Softer Industrial Demand

Like Gold, Silver’s physical market is structurally tight. The Silver Institute expects the market to post a supply deficit in 2026. The estimated deficit is 46.3 million ounces. Industrial demand for silver is expected to decline by about 3% to 639.6 million ounces, primarily due to photovoltaic manufacturers using less silver or substituting away from silver altogether. Other structural demand for silver is from AI and the Automotive and Electrical Grid.

From a monetary policy standpoint, the outlook for both metals is bearish for the near-term. Longer-term, persistent demand from institutions for Gold and a persistent deficit for Silver provide support.

Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Rejected at $4,142 as $4,103 Support Comes Back Into Focus

Gold is currently priced at $4,120 on the 2-hour chart. The price has failed to break above the $4,142 resistance area and the descending trendline again. What is interesting is the price is still below the two moving averages, and the latest rejection has confirmed a broader lower high.

I am looking at first support at $4,103. If that support breaks, then the next support at $4,067 and $4,032 would come into play. If resistance is broken at $4,142, then the next resistances at $4,184 and $4,226 would be important to watch.

RSI is below the 50 line, indicating that the momentum is still in favor of the sellers. However, it has moved sideways recently, indicating that the buyers and sellers are around the same strength. Due to this, I am looking for a move lower while gold is below $4,142 and the trendline. A break above $4,184 would negate this view. In the short-term, a break lower would target $4,103 and a break higher would target $4,142.

Silver Technical Analysis: XAG/USD Breaks $59.96 as $58.94 Becomes the Next Downside Target

Silver is currently trading at $59.21 on the 2-hour chart, having recently broken through the $59.96 support area. I see it as a bearish development that price is well below both moving averages and the descending trendline, while the more recent move has continued the series of lower lows and lower highs. So from a short-term perspective, the trend remains lower.

The first support that interests me is at $58.94. A clear move below that level would open-up $57.64. On the other hand, the former support at $59.96 and the $61.72 and $63.06 areas are the new areas of interest if the bulls take control.

RSI is also heading towards oversold levels, which supports the recent move lower, but increases the risk of a minor bounce. As long as silver stays below the $59.96 area and the descending trendline, I will continue to look for opportunities in the bear camp. A clear move below the $58.94 area would extend the move lower and look for a test of the $57.64 area. Conversely, if the bulls were to clear the $61.72 area, that would change my view.