Hyperliquid’s native token, HYPE, is painting a convincing price rebound setup as the network awaits the unlocking of 9.92 million tokens next week.
HYPE Circulating Supply Set To Grow By $630 Million
On Monday, July 6, Hyperliquid looks poised to unlock 9.92 million HYPE tokens worth about $630 million at the current spot prices near the mid-$60s.
The tranche represents roughly 1.04% of Hyperliquid’s 953.53 million HYPE maximum supply. More critically, it would expand the current circulating supply of 252.85 million HYPE by about 3.92%.
For the unversed: Unlocking doesn’t mean selling. Historically, the Hyperliquid team and early backers have chosen to immediately restake their tokens back into the platform to earn protocol fees.
Across six monthly unlocks in 2026, the token fell in the seven days after the January, February and May events, but rallied after the March, April and June unlocks. On average, HYPE gained 3.01% in the week before unlocks and 4.17% in the week after them.
If that post-unlock average repeats, HYPE could rise from around $63.35 to roughly $65.99 within seven days of the July 6 unlock.
HYPE Technical Structure Presents 20% Rebound Potential
From a chart perspective, HYPE continues to trade within an ascending channel on the daily timeframe, suggesting that the broader uptrend remains intact despite the recent consolidation.
The token is currently hovering near the channel’s mid-to-lower support area while also sitting close to its 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level near $62.02.
That zone has so far helped stabilize the pullback. If buyers defend this area and push HYPE back above the 20-day EMA near $64.17, the next upside target could emerge at the 0.236 Fib level around $67.61.
A stronger breakout from there would put the focus on the channel’s upper boundary near the recent swing high around $76.66, implying a rally of roughly 20% from current levels in the mid-$60s.
The Bearish Case
The bullish setup would weaken if HYPE loses its rising trendline support and the 50-day EMA near $60.29. A decisive daily close below that cluster could confirm a breakdown from the ascending channel, exposing the 0.5 Fib level near $57.50 as the next downside target.
The risk is not purely technical. Wallets reportedly linked to venture capital firm A16Z deposited 76,840 HYPE, worth roughly $5 million, into multiple centralized exchanges, implying that the firm had sold a total of 154,242 HYPE, or about $10.19 million, over the past two days.
Exchange deposits do not always guarantee immediate selling, but they often raise short-term supply concerns.
Combined with the upcoming 9.92 million HYPE unlock, the A16Z-linked transfers could strengthen the bearish case if spot demand fails to absorb the added sell pressure.
