Nasdaq 100 and S&P500: Microsoft Jumps Overnight, Meta Slides as PCE Tests Tech Stocks

Futures Try to Stabilize After Dow’s Worst Day Since April 2025

Microsoft is doing the heavy lifting Thursday morning after the worst session for the Dow in over a year left all three indexes looking for a floor. Futures are barely positive with Nasdaq-100 futures up 0.31%, S&P 500 futures gaining 0.17% and Dow futures ahead 67 points, or 0.13%.

The cash market needs it. The Dow lost 1,153.18 points, or 2.19%, on Wednesday. The S&P 500 dropped 1.52%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.74% and is now more than 10% below its intraday record. The Fed held rates but left September open with three dissents for a hike, and the 30-year Treasury yield pushed above 5.2% Thursday to its highest level since 2007. That is the number the stock market has to deal with before anything else.

Daily September E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures Technical Analysis

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are up and stable early Thursday. Today’s intraday low at 7331.00 is slightly higher than yesterday’s low at 7324.00.

On Wednesday, the index finished sharply lower and in a weak position after breaking through the 7357.25 main bottom. The next main bottom at 7292.25 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.

The major downside targets include the 200-day moving average at 7134.31 and the long-term retracement zone at 7047.75 to 6895.25.

On the upside, the major resistance is a combination of the short-term resistance at 7493.00 to 7540.50 and the 50-day moving average at 7526.61.

Daily September E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index Futures Technical Analysis

September E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index futures are edging higher during the pre-market session. Earlier, the index dropped to 27202.00 before turning higher. This was the sixth straight session of lower-lows.

Buyers stepped in just ahead of the long-term 50% level at 27142.25 and the 200-day moving average at 26987.80. If the latter fails, prices could continue to plunge to the 61.8% level at 26208.25. On the upside, the 50% level at 28283.50 is the nearest target.

Daily September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Technical Analysis

September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are higher early Thursday. So far, the move is holding above yesterday’s low at 51630. The futures contract is also sitting inside a short-term retracement zone at 51882 to 51463 and under the 50-day moving average at 51977.

Overcoming and sustaining a rally above the 50-day MA will indicate that buyers have returned after Wednesday’s plunge, while a sustained trade under 51463 will indicate that more aggressive sellers are aiming to take the Dow futures lower.

Microsoft Gave Buyers What Meta Could Not

Microsoft is up about 8% in pre-market and the reason is simple. Azure grew 43% at constant currency, ahead of the 40.2% forecast, and passed $100 billion in revenue for fiscal 2026. The market spent the past two weeks asking whether hyperscaler spending was running ahead of the demand. Microsoft said it is not, and backed it up with $90.01 billion in quarterly revenue against the $87.62 billion estimate.

Capital expenditures and finance leases hit $41 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter, up 69%, and CFO Amy Hood said spending grows again in fiscal 2027. That is the part the rest of Big Tech has not been able to deliver. Microsoft is spending at a pace that would sink most companies and the demand is still pulling ahead of the buildout. One report does not settle the AI valuation debate for the sector, but it gives buyers something they have not had in weeks.

Technically, Microsoft is currently trading $424.18. If it opens in the cash market at this price, it will be in a position to challenge the 200-day moving average at $434.13. This would be a major test for traders because the market is either going to resist this indicator or break out to the upside with $466.12 the next major objective.

Meta Shows Where the Market Draws the Line

Meta is down about 10% after missing earnings expectations and guiding third-quarter revenue to $61 billion to $64 billion with the low end sitting below the $63.15 billion analysts expected. Adjusted earnings came in at $6.18 per share, missing the LSEG estimate by $1.04.

The ad business is still producing, but the market is looking at what Meta is spending on AI and not seeing a clean path from the capital outlay to the returns. Microsoft showed that path Wednesday night. Meta did not. That is the distinction this market is making right now. Beating revenue is not enough when the spending is this large. The market wants to see where the money comes back, and Meta left that question open.

Technically, Meta is expected to open in a weak position at $533.17, based on the overnight trade. This would put it below the last swing bottom at $540.18, confirming the $686.08 and $691.52 double-top chart pattern.

The 30-Year at 5.2% Is the Real Problem

The Fed held Wednesday but the long end of the curve did not get the message. The 30-year yield above 5.2% is its highest level since 2007 and that move is more important for the stock market than the hold itself. Warsh refused to give a timetable, accepted three dissents for a hike and kept September fully on the table. Wells Fargo’s Sameer Samana sees the Fed staying in wait-and-see mode with September still live if inflation supports it.

Thursday’s data decides whether the long end keeps climbing. GDP, jobless claims and PCE all land this morning. Economists expect headline PCE inflation at 3.7% year-over-year with core at 3.3%. A firm print validates the dissenters and gives the 30-year another reason to push higher. A softer reading is the first opening the market has had in two weeks to push back on the September hike trade.

Foreign Markets Split on Tech

Europe is catching a modest bid with the Stoxx 600 up 0.30%, France’s CAC 40 gaining 0.53% and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 adding 0.38%. Germany’s DAX and Italy’s FTSE MIB are lower.

Asia stayed under pressure. South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.23%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.78% and China’s CSI 300 dropped 1.10%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.71%. The weakness in Asia continues to track the U.S. semiconductor trade through the supply chain. Microsoft’s report may slow that selling. It will not end it unless the rest of Big Tech produces similar evidence.

What to Watch

Amazon, Apple and Coinbase report after the close and the market needs to know whether Microsoft was an exception or the beginning of a broader answer on AI spending. Meta showed what happens when the capital outlay outruns the proof. Microsoft showed what happens when the demand is there to justify it. Amazon and Apple determine which report is closer to the real story for the rest of the group.

The PCE number this morning is the other catalyst. The Fed left three dissents on the table and gave the market no forward guidance. A firm inflation print with the 30-year already at 2007 highs keeps the pressure on equities from the rate side regardless of what earnings deliver. The Nasdaq has posted six straight sessions of lower lows and is sitting just above its 200-day. The Dow is under its 50-day after losing more than 1,100 points in a single session. Both indexes need the data and the earnings to cooperate at the same time, and right now the market is not getting that.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.