Nasdaq Index: SpaceX Surge Adds to Tech Stock Bid Ahead of PCE and Nvidia

Semiconductors Lead the Bounce While Consumer Stocks Fall Behind

The Nasdaq is higher Tuesday on lower Treasury yields and a chip recovery ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report Wednesday. The semiconductor group that dragged the market lower Monday is leading the session.

At 18:55 GMT, the S&P 500 was up 0.24%. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.51%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 120.13 points, or 0.22%.

Daily Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) Technical Analysis

The Nasdaq Composite is trading higher late in the session on Tuesday. Momentum is on the light side even after forming a new minor bottom at 25910.82 near the major 50-day moving average support at 25958.44.

The main trend is up according to the swing chart, but the minor trend is down. This is putting some pressure on the momentum. A trade through 25910.82 will reaffirm the minor downtrend, with the major retracement zone at 25650.43 to 25361.31 the next target.

The new minor range is 26875.52 to 25910.82. If the rally continues into the close, then look for a possible test of its 50% level at 26393.17.

Treasury Yields Pulled Back but the Long Bond Has Not Cleared 5%

The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.637% on Tuesday. The 30-year dropped to 5.176%. Oil’s more than 3% decline pulled some immediate inflation pressure out of the market. Treasury’s buyback plans are still working underneath. Reports Monday said the department could use its General Account, holding close to $1 trillion, to fund expanded purchases of older government bonds. That put a buyer on the long end after last week’s jump in yields.

The 30-year is lower. It is still above 5%. Two days of selling have not changed that. Treasury can support older bonds through buybacks. Deficits and new issuance are not going away. The long end caught a bid on the buyback story and the weaker oil trade. It has not decided the supply problem is over. Growth stocks got room to recover Tuesday. The rate risk sitting above them has not moved.

Nvidia Broke Its Losing Streak but the Earnings Bar Went Up With It

Nvidia bounced more than 1% Tuesday and the rest of the chip group went with it. AMD ran about 4%. Seven sessions of selling in Nvidia ended the same way the buying ahead of every major earnings release starts, with traders grabbing shares they plan to flip if the number disappoints. The semiconductor rotation Monday spooked the group. Tuesday’s bid is the response, not a change in conviction.

The stock is still up more than 13% in 2026. That is the problem for Wednesday. Nvidia does not get credit for meeting expectations at these levels. The guidance has to move the number higher or the rally that carried the entire AI trade runs out of buyers willing to pay up.

SpaceX Keeps the Capital-Spending Trade Growing

SpaceX added more than 2% after putting $100 billion behind a new launch facility in Louisiana. That is not a press release number. That is a company betting on demand for launch capacity years into the future while borrowing costs are still elevated. The stock reclaimed its $135 IPO price on the announcement.

Nvidia is the chip side of that trade. SpaceX is the infrastructure side. The spending plans are big. The cost of money is still the risk sitting over all of it.

SpaceX is higher late Tuesday as the stock regained its $135 initial offering price. The price action also made $130.39 a new main bottom.

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $130.39 will change the main trend to down. A move through $149.80 will reaffirm the uptrend. $150 is also an important level since it represents the stock’s first public trade.

Based on the short-term range of $104.83 to $149.80, key 50% support comes in at $127.31.

The long-term range is $225.64 to $104.83. A successful breakout over $149.80 could target its retracement zone at $165.24 to $179.49.

Consumer Confidence Missed and Tariffs Are Piling On

Consumer confidence dropped to 89.4 in August. It came in below the 90.2 estimate. Additionally, it was the weakest reading since January. The consumer has held up in earnings results. Tuesday’s number tells a different story. Household sentiment is deteriorating and the retailers are already reflecting it.

Stocks in the News

Dick’s Sporting Goods fell after disappointing results, putting the stock on pace for its worst session on record. Walmart was lower. Target declined. The consumer side of the market is not participating in Tuesday’s recovery.

What to Watch

Lower yields and a chip bounce gave the market a session. PCE inflation and second-quarter GDP Wednesday morning tell you whether that session was the start of something or Tuesday’s version of a dead-cat bid. Nvidia reports after the close the same day.

Warsh speaks Friday at Jackson Hole with the bond market, the inflation data and the earnings already behind him. The consumer is already cracking. Confidence missed, Canada matched Washington’s tariffs, and the retailers sold off while the rest of the market was buying. The 30-year yield is lower. It is still above 5%.

The Nasdaq bounced near its 50-day moving average and formed a minor bottom. The minor trend is down inside an uptrend. A continued rally targets the 50% level of the minor range at 26,393.17. SpaceX reclaimed its $135 IPO price. A move through $149.80 reaffirms the uptrend and opens a path toward the retracement zone at $165.24 to $179.49. Wednesday’s data and earnings decide whether the buying has legs.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.