Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: NG Bullish Run Slows; Next Target $2?

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Updated: Feb 29, 2024, 10:40 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

U.S. crude inventory spike hints at demand slowdown amid high-interest rate concerns.
Natural Gas (NG) trends bullish above $1.8651 but faces resistance up to $2.0470.
UKOIL edges up, with a bullish outlook above pivot point $81.82 and resistance near $84.88.

Crude Inventory Surges Signal Demand Concerns

Oil prices softened in the early hours of Thursday, as unexpected surges in U.S. crude inventories raised concerns over sluggish demand and the potential for prolonged high U.S. interest rates, which could dampen economic growth and reduce oil consumption.

The build-up in crude stockpiles, reported by the EIA, suggests a decrease in refining activity due to various outages. Analyst expectations were exceeded as crude inventories swelled for the fifth week.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

NG Price Chart

Natural Gas (NG) is trading at $1.881, down 0.79% from the previous session. The current pivot point for NG stands at $1.8651. Looking at resistance levels, NG faces immediate challenges at $1.9291, with further hurdles at $1.9871 and $2.0470.

On the downside, initial support lies at $1.7983, with subsequent floors at $1.7257 and $1.6773. The 50-day EMA is at $1.7930, providing near-term technical support, while the 200-day EMA at $2.0047 suggests a longer-term resistance level.

The overall trend for NG is bullish above the pivot of $1.8651, indicating a potential for further gains if this level holds. Conversely, a drop below this pivot could signal a shift to a bearish outlook.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

USOIL has marginally appreciated to $78.44, a 0.31% increase within the latest trading window. The commodity’s pivot point is at $78.88, a critical indicator for the day’s trading bias. Overhead, resistance levels are pinpointed at $79.61, $80.36, and $81.06, each representing a potential inflection point for price advances.

Looking down, support is first found at $77.46, with additional levels at $76.25 and $75.17, which could provide buying opportunities if tested.

The 50-day and 200-day EMAs are at $77.65 and $76.15, respectively, suggesting that the market could maintain its bullish stance as long as the price stays above the $77.50 threshold. A dip below this could signal a bearish shift for USOIL.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

UKOIL Price Chart

In today’s session, UK OIL has witnessed a slight uptick, currently trading at $82.08, marking a 0.29% increase. The pivot point is established at $81.82, a crucial juncture for future price direction. Resistance levels are identified at $83.04, $83.86, and $84.88, which could impede bullish momentum.

Conversely, support forms at $81.01, with further potential cushions at $80.00 and $78.77 should the trend reverse. The 50-day EMA at $82.23 and the 200-day EMA at $81.11 offer near and long-term technical perspectives, respectively.

The trend for UKOIL is bullish as long as prices remain above the pivot point of $81.82. A sustained move below this level, however, may alter the bullish narrative.

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About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.