Natural Gas Price Squeezes Below $2.99 Resistance

Squeeze Under $2.99

Natural gas held key support on Tuesday while probing a trend resistance zone that still stands between this rebound and a larger recovery. The 50-day moving average has converged with the 100-day moving average near $2.91, creating a band of dynamic resistance that also includes last week’s high of $2.99. That $2.99 high is the key pivot, as a rise above it would complete a bullish of the prior downswing and shift the near-term structure higher.

Bounce Inside Larger Downtrend

Near-term resistance sits at Monday’s high of $2.95, with support at last Friday’s low of $2.84. The bias remains to the upside after a bullish reversal signal triggered on the rally above the top of a bottom range at $2.83. That $2.83 level has since held as support, which argues for continuation higher. These are early indications that an uptrend is beginning. Even so, the short-term advance is still contained inside a larger bearish trend structure, so this bounce is only the start of a possible larger advance, not confirmation of one.

First Caps on the Rebound

For now, the upside looks limited to the 200-day moving average, currently near $3.31, or the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the prior decline at $3.20. Because the 200-day average is falling, it may drift closer to the Fibonacci level and form a shared upper target zone between those two marks.

A decisive rally above $2.95 would open the door to clearing the 50-day and 100-day moving averages and put a recovery above the $2.99 swing high in force. Next upside targets would then be the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3.07, which sits close to a measured-move objective from the bottom consolidation near $3.05.

Support Map Until 200-Day Breaks

Downside from here looks limited unless support fails at the 20-day moving average, currently near $2.78 and rising. A recent higher swing low at $2.70 remains the key structural support beneath that average. Even if price first stalls near the 200-day moving average, an eventual reclaim of that line is still required before the long-term outlook can start to change. For now, natural gas remains under pressure while it trades below that long-term average. Until that cap breaks, Tuesday’s squeeze between rising support and the $2.91-$2.99 resistance cluster still defines the near-term map. Either the bounce holds above support, or natural gas stays trapped under the larger downtrend.

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