Oil News: Crude Oil Futures Hold Steady as Traders Watch Russian Supply Risks

Crude Holds Steady as Traders Eye Russian Supply Risks, Key Technical Levels

Light crude oil futures are treading water early Monday, holding near flat as the market looks for solid footing inside the key retracement zone between $59.27 and $58.49.

Prices are hovering just below the 50-day moving average at $60.79, which has capped rallies for nearly a month. A break above that level—and especially the 200-day moving average at $61.48—could trigger fresh buying and open the door for a run toward the longer-term 50% retracement level at $63.74.

At 13:19 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $60.22, up $0.13 or +0.22%.

Oil Pauses After Russian Loadings Resume

Crude prices slipped slightly after loadings resumed at Russia’s Novorossiysk export terminal, following a two-day halt caused by a Ukrainian drone strike. Friday’s rally of over 2% in both WTI and Brent had been driven by concerns over the disruption, which impacted around 2% of global supply. While the immediate risk has eased with loadings back online as of Sunday, the market remains on edge over further strikes.

Ukraine’s military claimed it also targeted the Ryazan and Novokuibyshevsk refineries over the weekend—part of a growing pattern of attacks on Russian infrastructure. Traders are weighing whether these hits will begin to drag more noticeably on Russian crude flows, especially as sanctions pressure mounts.

Traders Watching Sanctions and Supply Chain Risks

Western sanctions are back in focus as the U.S. moves to tighten restrictions on Russian energy trade. Fresh measures kick in after November 21, targeting transactions with companies like Lukoil and Rosneft. There’s also political noise around potential secondary sanctions, with discussions emerging over penalizing countries that continue to do business with Moscow. Iran, already under scrutiny, may also come into play.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ is staying the course, keeping December’s output increase at 137,000 barrels per day and signaling no further hikes in the first quarter of next year. Even so, the supply side remains messy. ING warned of a persistent surplus through 2026, but also flagged rising geopolitical risks—not just from Ukraine, but also Iran, which recently seized a tanker in the Gulf of Oman.

Specs Cover Shorts as Risks Mount

Positioning data from ICE shows speculators added over 12,000 net long contracts in Brent last week, largely through short-covering. That suggests some traders are backing off bearish bets given the growing risk premium. UBS analysts echoed this sentiment, noting that while oil-on-water volumes have increased, there’s been no clear build in on-land inventories—leaving room for price support if physical supply tightens.

Bottom Line: Still Rangebound, But Risks Are Tilting Higher

Crude is still stuck below its 50- and 200-day moving averages, and buyers aren’t chasing this market just yet. But the supply side remains shaky—between Ukraine’s refinery strikes, U.S. sanctions, and Middle East tensions, the market is growing more reluctant to lean short. If WTI can break above $61.48 with conviction, bulls may finally have a level to build on. Until then, expect choppy action with a slight upside tilt.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.