Oil News: WTI Defends 200-Day MA as Ukraine Strikes Renew Supply Risk Concerns

Oil Holds Steady as Traders Defend Key Technical Support and Geopolitics Take Center Stage

Light crude oil futures traded nearly flat Friday as traders focused on holding support at the 200-day moving average of $63.25.

With prices clinging to technical levels, attention has turned to whether bullish momentum can reignite and push WTI crude above the next upside hurdles at $64.56 and the 50-day moving average at $65.00.

A sustained move through these levels would signal strengthening buying interest, though overhead resistance at $65.41 and $66.18 still looms large.

A breakout above $66.18 could open the door for a rally toward $69.69.

However, failure to maintain support at $63.25 may lead to another test of the next support zone near $61.12, giving bulls a chance to rebuild a base.

The technical setup is finely balanced as traders seek the next driver to push oil out of its recent range.

At 11:01 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $63.45, down $0.07 or -0.11%.

Ukraine Tensions Resurface as Peace Efforts Stall

The geopolitical premium returned to the crude market this week as hopes for a Ukraine-Russia peace breakthrough faded. While Trump has proposed a summit between Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelenskiy, progress remains elusive. ING analysts warned that the less likely a ceasefire appears, the higher the chance of further U.S. sanctions on Russian energy, supporting a bullish bias for crude.

Thursday’s developments saw Russia escalate air attacks near the EU border, while Ukraine struck a key Russian refinery and the Unecha oil station, disrupting flows through the Druzhba pipeline. Hungary confirmed pipeline deliveries were halted. These developments have raised concerns about supply risks in Europe, lending support to Brent and WTI.

Crude Draw and Fed Watch Keep Traders Engaged

Fundamentals also offered tailwinds this week, with U.S. crude inventories falling by 6 million barrels—well above analyst expectations of a 1.8 million barrel draw. The surprise decline suggests firm demand despite broader economic headwinds.

Still, weak Q2 GDP data from Germany, which showed a 0.3% contraction, added demand-side concerns for European crude consumption. Meanwhile, traders are eyeing comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium for clues on monetary policy. A potential rate cut could support economic growth and, in turn, oil demand.

Oil Prices Forecast: Bullish Bias Holds Above Key Support

With WTI holding above its 200-day moving average and geopolitical risk back in focus, the short-term outlook for oil prices remains cautiously bullish. A breakout above the 50-day MA at $65.00 could accelerate gains, but traders should stay alert to economic signals and global political developments, as key risks remain finely balanced.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.