Pump.Fun Price Prediction: PUMP Reverses Downtrend After 200-Day EMA Breakout

Pump.fun (PUMP) has surged by 7% in the past 24 hours after breaking past a key technical indicator. This could mark the beginning of a bullish phase for the token despite the market’s overall bearish tone.

Trading volumes during this period have surged by 60%, hitting the $100 million mark to account for 11% of the asset’s circulating market cap.

Pump.fun Will Release Billions of Tokens as Vesting Schedules Start to Expire

PUMP has managed to reverse its 2026 losses and has now booked a 5% gain after a 43% surge in the last 30 days alone.

This Solana-based launchpad continues to capture significant volumes despite the bear market, as traders appear to be coming back to speculate on memecoins.

Last month, DEX volumes hit $20 billion once again, rising by nearly 20% compared to June. Moreover, protocol fees increased from $66 million to $84 million, indicating higher activity and usage.

Despite these impressive numbers, the token’s rally faces a looming threat coming from expired vesting schedules for both the developing team and existing investors.

According to data from Lookonchain, over $92 million worth of PUMP (around 52 billion tokens) was unlocked on July 14 alone.

Meanwhile, on-chain data from Tokenomist indicates that around 2.7 billion PUMP tokens will be freed in August as well. In addition, a huge community allocation is expected to be released in September, which could put downward pressure on this digital asset if investors opt to sell rather than hold.

At a point when the macroeconomic backdrop is unfavorable for cryptocurrencies as a whole, traders may prefer to proceed with caution despite this promising technical breakout, as sentiment is still not at its best.

PUMP Could Rise by 45% If This Happens

Heading to the daily chart, the inverse head and shoulders pattern we identified in a previous Pump.fun price prediction article yielded the expected result and hit its projected target for a 30% gain in just 15 days.

Meanwhile, today’s big move is confirming a break above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). The fact that this jump is being accompanied by above-average trading volumes points to an ongoing short squeeze and confirms the technical relevance of this indicator for market participants.

That said, we also spotted an early exhaustion signal, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) made a lower high even though the price has kept rising. This could mean that positive momentum is weakening.

We expect a move to $0.0025 at least before a pullback is due. In such a case, the price could drop back to the 200-day EMA to find the necessary liquidity to resume its uptrend.

In the mid-term, our target for PUMP would be the $0.0032 level, meaning a 45% upside potential based on today’s price.