Risk Aversion sends XRP Back to sub-$0.35 as Investors Await Court Ruling

Key Insights:

• XRP rose by 3.04% on Thursday. Following a 2.15% gain on Wednesday, XRP ended the day at $0.342.
• Market reaction to the FOMC meeting minutes from Wednesday supported a broad-based crypto rally on Thursday.
• Technical indicators are more bullish, with XRP sitting at the 200-day EMA.

On Thursday, XRP rose by 3.04%. Following a 2.15% gain on Wednesday, XRP ended the day at $0.3420.

A bearish morning saw XRP fall to a low of $0.3262. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (R1) at $0.3230, XRP rallied to a high of $0.3452.

XRP broke through the First Major Resistance Level (S1) at $0.3371 and the Second Major Resistance Level (S2) at $0.3424.

Coming up short of $0.35 levels, XRP eased back to end the day at $0.34 levels.

A pickup in risk appetite delivered support, with the NASDAQ 100 rallying by 2.28%. Investor reaction to the FOMC meeting minutes from Wednesday delivered the upside on the day.

The FOMC meeting minutes highlighted the risk of rate hikes having a ‘larger-than-expected effect on economic growth.’ Prior to the minutes, the markets had priced in a 75 basis point rate hike for July. However, the minutes revealed that participants judged a 50 or 75 basis point increase as appropriate.

While XRP remained in the hands of broader market risk sentiment, the ongoing SEC v Ripple case remains the key driver.

XRP in the Hands of Broader Market Ahead of SEC v Ripple Ruling

Since this week’s SEC filings on expert testimony, investors continue to await the all-important court ruling on SEC motions to protect William Hinman’s speech-related documents under the attorney-client privilege.

In 2018, the former SEC Director of the Division of Corporation Finance said that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not securities.

The ruling could turn the case on its head at a tough time for SEC Chair Gary Gensler.

On Thursday, the Wall Street Journal published a piece on the SEC Chair and his moves to take regulatory ownership of the crypto market.

The report followed news of US lawmakers questioning the SEC targeted approach towards crypto firms that stifle innovation.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was up 1.23% to $0.3462.

A bullish start to the day saw XRP rise from a low of $0.3418 to a high of $0.3580 before easing back.

XRP broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.3494 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.3568 before a slide back to sub-$0.3450.

Technical Indicators

Avoiding the $0.3378 pivot would bring the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.3494 back into play.

XRP would need the support of the broader market to avoid a return to sub-$0.34.

In the case of an extended crypto rally, XRP could retarget the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.3568 and the morning high of $0.3580. The Third Major Resistance Level sits at $0.3758.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3304 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.3250 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3188. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.2998.

A court ruling on the Hinman speech-related documents would mute the influence of the Support and Resistance Levels.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) send a bullish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat around the 200-day EMA, currently at $0.3527. Today, the 50-day EMA converged on the 100-day EMA. The 100-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, XRP price positive.

A move back through R1 and the 200-day EMA would bring R2 back into play. A bullish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA would support a run at $0.37 and R3.

While the Hinman ruling remains the key, US nonfarm payrolls from the US will influence market risk sentiment later today.