US Dollar Forecast: DXY Straddling Key Pivot at 99.306 as October Economic Data Remains Unreleased

Dollar Ends the Week Softer as Traders Brace for Delayed U.S. Data

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) finished the week down 0.28%, holding just above 99.00 after defending Thursday’s low at 98.991. The index continues to struggle for direction as traders prepare for a wave of delayed economic reports following the end of the U.S. government shutdown. With uncertainty surrounding both the timing and completeness of these releases, momentum remains limited and positioning stays cautious.

Even with Treasury yields holding firm, the dollar failed to capitalize. Traders remain focused on the evolving Fed outlook and the challenge of evaluating inflation and labor trends without October data. Without these key indicators, the market has stayed locked inside recent ranges, leaving the DXY on the defensive heading into next week.

Fed Messaging Stays Cautious as December Cut Odds Narrow

Federal Reserve commentary leaned cautious throughout the week. Futures markets now show slightly above a 50% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in December, lower than earlier in the week. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid emphasized that inflation remains too elevated and signaled he may oppose a cut if policymakers move in that direction next month.

Uncertainty deepened after the White House confirmed that the October unemployment rate may never be released, as the survey required to produce it was not conducted during the shutdown. Additional datasets, including CPI, PPI, and nonfarm payrolls for October, also remain in question. With these gaps, traders have relied more heavily on Fed speeches and broad sentiment rather than hard data.

Foreign Currencies React to Dollar Weakness

The euro advanced above $1.16 earlier in the week before easing slightly, while the pound slipped after reports that the U.K. government may scrap planned income-tax increases ahead of the November 26 budget.

The Swiss franc firmed as global equity weakness pushed investors toward safety, and the yen stabilized in the mid-154s despite remaining near recent lows.

Position adjustments remain heavy, with traders rotating in and out of dollar exposure based on shifting expectations for U.S. policy.

Yields Steady as Traders Hold Back Ahead of Data

Market Forecast: DXY Likely to Stay Rangebound

The DXY continues to straddle its key pivot at 99.306, which sits between the 50-day moving average at 98.529 and the 200-day moving average at 100.083. This positioning signals a lack of conviction and reinforces expectations for a rangebound market in the short term.

Softer data would likely renew the dollar’s weakening pattern from earlier this year, while firmer numbers could help the greenback recover lost ground. Until the delayed reports hit, traders should expect tight, reactive price action rather than a directional move.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.