US Dollar Forecast: Will JOLTS Job Data Drive Volatility? – GBP/USD and EUR/USD Outlook

Market Overview

The Dollar Index (DXY) showed resilience after key economic data outperformed expectations. The Final Manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.2, surpassing forecasts of 50.1, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI hit 50.9, exceeding the projected 49.3.

ISM Manufacturing Prices also rose to 54.9 from the expected 52.6, signaling increased cost pressures. Construction Spending grew 0.5%, higher than the forecasted 0.3%.

However, Wards Total Vehicle Sales disappointed, dropping to 15.6M versus the forecast of 16.0M. Looking ahead, markets will watch JOLTS Job Openings (forecast 8.01M) and Factory Orders (-0.7%) for further direction on USD strength.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at $108.475, down 0.05%, reflecting mild weakness after recent gains. The index is hovering just below the key pivot point at $108.736, indicating a cautious market tone.

A sustained move above this level could trigger bullish momentum, targeting immediate resistance at $109.078 and potentially $109.402.

Conversely, a break below $108.736 could accelerate selling pressure, with support levels at $108.141 and $107.782 becoming key areas to watch. The 50-EMA at $108.531 and the 200-EMA at $108.364 are tightly aligned, signaling indecision but offering dynamic support to prevent sharp declines.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD is trading at $1.24339, down 0.12%, reflecting a mild pullback in recent sessions. The pair is holding above the key pivot point at $1.23776, suggesting that the bullish bias remains intact for now.

A sustained move above this level could pave the way for a test of immediate resistance at $1.24704, with further upside potential toward $1.25272.

However, if the pair slips below $1.23776, selling pressure could intensify, targeting support at $1.23338 and potentially $1.22601. The 50-EMA at $1.23991 and the 200-EMA at $1.23849 are closely aligned, acting as dynamic support zones to watch in the near term.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD is trading at $1.03441, showing a modest uptick of 0.01% in a cautious market environment. The pair is hovering around its pivot point at $1.03499, which serves as a critical level for determining the next move.

A sustained break above this pivot could push the euro toward immediate resistance at $1.04192, with further gains eyeing $1.04659.

However, failure to hold above $1.03499 keeps the bearish bias intact, potentially dragging the pair down to support at $1.02711 and $1.02109. The 50-EMA at $1.03467 aligns closely with the current price, while the 200-EMA at $1.03750 suggests upward resistance, adding to the mixed outlook.