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Vladimir Zernov
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Moderna

Moderna Video 06.05.21.

Moderna Stock Moves Lower As Q1 Revenue Misses Estimates

Shares of Moderna found themselves under pressure after the company released its first-quarter results.

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Moderna reported revenue of $1.94 billion and earnings of $2.84 per share, beating analyst estimates on earnings and missing them on revenue. It looks that the market was not ready to tolerate the revenue miss, and it weighed heavily on Moderna stock.

The bar was set high for the company whose shares were up by more than 60% year-to-date before the release of the quarterly report. In addition, shares of  vaccine makers found themselves under pressure after U.S. signaled that it would support a waiver for vaccine IP rights at the WTO.

EU has already stated that it was ready to discuss waving COVID-19 vaccines patents, which is a worrisome development for investors. At the same time, it remains to be seen whether any decisions will be made in the near term.

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What’s Next For Moderna?

The sell-off in Moderna shares was triggered by IP waiver-related fears and a revenue miss. IP waiver-related fears probably served as the main catalyst for the current sell-off as other vaccine makers like BioNTech and Pfizer also found themselves under pressure.

Currently, analysts expect that Moderna will report earnings of $23.27 per share in 2021 and $16.58 per share in 2022 so the stock is trading at about 9 forward P/E for 2022 which is very cheap in today’s market environment.

However, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding future profits, and recent discussions about waiving IP rights add another layer of uncertainty. At the same time, it looks increasingly likely that at least some part of the vaccine revenue will be recurring as people may need regular shots to protect themselves against COVID-19.

In this light, Moderna shares may soon attract speculative traders and investors who will want to use the current pullback as an opportunity to buy the stock at lower levels.

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