XRP News Today: XRP Slides on Tariff Threats, BoJ Hawkish Shift

XRP sees a four-day losing streak as crypto legislative delays coincide with rising geopolitical tensions and a hawkish Bank of Japan policy stance.

US President Trump shifted his focus from Greenland and NATO nations to Canada over the weekend, weighing on buying interest in XRP and the broader crypto market.

Meanwhile, a more hawkish Bank of Japan policy stance and warnings of yen intervention strengthened the Japanese yen, raising the risk of an unwind of yen carry trades.

XRP was already on the back foot ahead of the latest events, as traders reacted to the Senate delaying progress of the Market Structure Bill.

Despite rising geopolitical risks, the medium-term outlook for XRP remains bullish.

Below, I will explore the key drivers behind recent price trends, the medium-term (4-8 weeks) outlook, and the key technical levels traders should watch.

US President Trump Threatens 100% Tariff on Canada

This weekend, President Trump reacted to a Canada-China trade deal, potentially giving Chinese manufacturers another avenue to dodge US tariffs, stating:

“If Governor Carney thinks he is going to make Canada a “Drop Off Port” for China to send goods and products into the United States, he is sorely mistaken. China will eat Canada alive, completely devour it, including the destruction of their businesses, social fabric, and general way of life. If Canada makes a deal with China, it will immediately be hit with a 100% tariff on all Canadian goods and products coming into the U.S.A.”

Crucially, the US is Canada’s largest trading partner, accounting for over 70% of total Canadian exports. With a Canadian trade-to-GDP ratio of roughly 65%, a 100% tariff on goods bound for the US would materially impact the economy and global trade. Chinese manufacturers may also feel the indirect effects of 100% tariffs, with greater significance to global trade terms.

XRP and the crypto-spot ETF market remain highly sensitive to trade-related developments. For context, President Trump threatened China with a 100% tariff in October 2025, triggering a flash crash. XRP plunged from $2.8406 to a low of $0.7773 before reclaiming $2. Last week, Trump threatened a 10% tariff on eight European members of NATO. The XRP-spot ETF market snapped a 10-week inflow streak, weighing on buying interest in XRP.

XRP Price Forecast: Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Targets

Despite last week’s outflows, three consecutive days of inflows through January 23 indicated resilient demand for XRP-spot ETFs, affirming a positive short-term outlook (1-4 weeks), with a target price of $2.5. Furthermore, expectations that the Senate will pass the Market Structure Bill continue to support XRP at current price levels. These scenarios reaffirm the bullish longer-term price projections:

• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $3.0.
• Longer-term (8-12 weeks): $3.66.

Key Downside Risks to the Bullish XRP Outlook

Several scenarios could challenge the constructive bias. These include:

• The Bank of Japan signals multiple rate hikes to reach a hawkish neutral interest rate (potentially 1.5%-2.5%). A higher neutral rate would narrow US-Japan rate differentials. A narrower rate differential could trigger a yen carry trade unwind, mirroring events in mid-2024. An unwind of the yen carry trade would invalidate the bullish short-term outlook.
• Fading bets on an H1 2026 Fed rate cut.
• Further delays and partisan opposition to the Market Structure Bill.
• XRP-spot ETFs report outflows.

These events would weigh on risk assets, sending XRP below $1.85 and indicating a bearish trend reversal.

Technical Analysis: Levels to Watch

XRP slid 4.16% on Sunday, January 25, following the previous day’s 0.25% loss, closing at $1.8339. The token saw heavier losses than the broader crypto market cap, which dropped 3.06%. However, XRP recovered in early trading on Monday, January 26, rising above $1.85.

Nevertheless, the losses left XRP trading below its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, indicating a bearish bias. However, the bullish fundamentals continue to counter bearish technicals, reinforcing the positive outlook.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $1.85, $1.75, and then $1.50.
• 50-day EMA resistance: $2.0277.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.2869.
• Resistance levels: $2.0, $2.5, $3.0, and $3.66.

On the daily chart, a break above $2.0 would bring the 50-day EMA into play. Importantly, a sustained move through the 50-day EMA would signal a near-term bullish trend reversal. A bullish trend reversal would enable the bulls to target $2.2. A breakout above $2.2 would pave the way toward the 200-day EMA.

Significantly, a sustained move through the EMAs would reinforce the bullish medium- and longer-term price targets.

Fundamental Events Driving Near-Term Price Action

Near-term price drivers include:

• XRP-spot ETF flow trends.
• US economic indicators and the Fed’s monetary rate path.
• US crypto-related legislative developments.
• The Bank of Japan’s neutral rate and policy outlook.

Reclaiming $2 Is Key for XRP’s Bullish Structure

Reclaiming $2 remains crucial for the short- to medium-term outlook. The bullish fundamentals, as detailed above, continue to offset bearish technicals, indicating a near-term rebound. XRP’s recovery from December’s low of $1.7712 and January gains of 1.93% reaffirmed the bullish structure and short- to medium-term price targets.

A breakout above $2.0 would open the door to testing the upper trendline. A sustained move through the upper trendline would affirm the bullish trend reversal and validate the bullish structure, supporting the price targets:

• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $3.0.
• Longer-term (8–12 weeks): target of $3.66.

However, a sustained fall through the lower trendline to sub-$1.85 levels would invalidate the bullish structure, signaling a bearish trend reversal.

XRP Outlook Hinges on Crypto Legislation, ETFs, and Central Banks

Looking ahead, crypto-related legislative developments will be key for XRP’s near-term price outlook. Bipartisan support for the Market Structure Bill would raise expectations of the Senate passing the Bill, driving demand for XRP.

However, US economic indicators, the Fed’s interest rate decision, and demand for XRP-spot ETFs will also influence the near-term price outlook.

A more dovish Fed rate path and a dovish BoJ neutral rate (potentially 1%-1.25%) would boost sentiment. Strong US XRP-spot ETF inflows, the progress of the Market Structure Bill, and increased XRP utility would reaffirm the constructive bias.

In summary, these price catalysts support a medium-term (4–8 weeks) move to $3.0. The US Senate’s passing the Market Structure Bill would reinforce the longer-term (8–12 weeks) price target of $3.66.

Beyond 12 weeks, these key events are likely to drive XRP to its all-time high of $3.66 (Binance). A breakout above $3.66 would support a 6- to 12-month price target of $5.