The Week Ahead: A Busy Economic Calendar and Geopolitics in Focus

On the Macro

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic calendar, with 62 stats in focus in the week ending 18^th February. In the week prior, 31 stats had been in focus.

For the Dollar:

Early in the week, wholesale inflation and retail sales figures for January will draw plenty of interest.

On Thursday, the focus will then shift to the weekly jobless claims and Philly FED manufacturing numbers.

Through the week, expect any FOMC member chatter to also draw interest. On the monetary policy front, the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday will also draw more interest than usual.

In the week ending 11^th February, the Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.63% to 96.082.

For the EUR:

Eurozone industrial production and 2^nd estimate GDP numbers, along with ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone will be key.

From the ECB, the Economic Bulletin will influence on Thursday, with ECB President Lagarde scheduled to speak on Monday.

For the week, the EUR slid by 0.86% to $1.1350.

For the Pound:

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic calendar. On Tuesday, claimant counts and the UK’s unemployment rate will be key ahead of retail sales figures due out on Friday.

Following the February rate hike, the markets will be wanting to assess whether the BoE can make another move in the coming weeks.

The Pound rose by 0.24% to end the week at $1.3564.

For the Loonie:

It’s a  busy week ahead. Inflation figures for January and December retail sales data due out on Wednesday and Friday will be key.

Other stats include manufacturing and wholesale sales and housing sector numbers. These should have a muted impact on the Loonie in the week.

The Loonie ended the week up 0.16% to C$1.2737 against the U.S Dollar.

From the Asia Pacific

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a quiet week ahead. The markets will need to wait for employment figures on Thursday. With the RBA holding back from any talk of rate hikes, positive numbers would be needed to force the RBA to shift its outlook.

On the monetary policy front, the RBA meeting minutes on Tuesday will be key early in the week.

The Aussie Dollar rose by 0.92% to $0.7137.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s a quiet week ahead, with stats limited to 4^th quarter wholesale inflation figures. While the stats will provide direction, the numbers are unlikely to influence the RBNZ near-term.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week up by 0.27% to $0.6651.

For the Japanese Yen:

It’s a busier week ahead. 4^th quarter GDP, trade data, and inflation figures will be key stats in the week.

Expect the GDP and trade data to have the greatest influence.

The Japanese Yen fell by 0.14% to end the week at ¥115.420 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

In a quiet week ahead, inflation figures for January will be in focus on Wednesday. A pickup in inflationary pressure would test support for riskier assets.

In the week ending 11^th February, the Yuan rose by 0.10% to end the week at 6.3546 against the Dollar.

Geo-Politics

Russia and the Ukraine will likely be the main area of focus in the week ahead. News updates could overshadow economic data and any central bank chatter.