Crude Oil Price Forecast – WTI and Brent Stall at 50-Day EMAs Amid Geopolitical Caution

Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The light sweet crude oil market initially tried to rally during the trading session here on Friday, but it looks like nobody really wants to put a lot of money in this market, and quite frankly I don’t blame them. Dropping volume right at the 50-day EMA, giving up early gains suggests that a lot of people are worried about the next headline, because quite frankly we just don’t know what it’s going to be.

Hanging around a flat 50-day EMA is the very definition for a lot of technical traders of range-bound sideways sloppy trading. We have the 200-day EMA sitting underneath offering support as well. It makes complete sense that traders would not want to put on a big position heading into a weekend that could have anything for some type of headline to move the market gapping higher on the open.

Brent Resistance and Geopolitical Risks

The Brent market looks very much the same. We pierced the 50-day EMA, gave back the gains, and now it looks like we are forming a little bit of a shooting star, although it’s early in the day. It’s at the top of a range. We’re sitting just above the $85 level. This looks like a market that doesn’t have anywhere to be, or at least no real conviction.

And again, volume has been dropping a little bit as of late, and that makes perfect sense. Why take the risk heading into the weekend? I suspect that is the question most people are asking. After all, there have been a lot of barbs traded via the media, but we haven’t really seen a lot in the way of missiles between the Americans and the Iranians, so that in and of itself is good news.

But the Strait is still closed; it doesn’t look like it’s going to open anytime soon. It’s just a complete mess in this market.

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