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James Hyerczyk
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading nearly flat during the last hour of cash market trading after clawing back earlier losses. Blue chips stocks fell earlier in the session ahead of a U.S. response to China’s national security law on Hong Kong that threatens to take the shine off another month of strong gains for the stock market.

At 19:09 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 25418, down 39 or -0.15%. This is up from a low of 24991.

Traders breathed a sigh of relief after President Donald Trump’s much-awaited news conference on China Friday afternoon. During the news conference, Trump said he would take action to eliminate special treatment towards Hong Kong. However, he did not indicate the U.S. would pull out of the phase one trade agreement reached with China earlier this year, easing trader concerns for the time being. Investors celebrated this news with a late session rally.

In other news, the iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) jumped to its session high following the news conference, trading more than 2% higher. Marvell Technologies and Lam Research were among the biggest gainers in the ETF, rising 6.7% and 2.9%, respectively. Nvidia and Micron Technology also advanced more than 2% each.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum shifted to the downside on Thursday with the formation of a closing price reversal top and its subsequent confirmation on Friday.

A trade through 25794 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through the last main bottom at 22704 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 24076 will change the minor trend to down. This will also confirm the shift in momentum.

The main range is 29506 to 18086. Its retracement zone at 25144 to 23796 is controlling the longer-term direction of the major average. Its Fibonacci level at 25144 is major support.

The minor range is 24076 to 25794. Its 50% level at 24935 is controlling the longer-term direction of the Dow.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures contract into the close on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major Fib level at 25144 and the minor 50% level at 24935.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 25144 will indicate the presence of buyers. If they can create enough upside momentum then look for the Dow to make a run at 25794.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 24935 will signal the presence of sellers. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next major target a price cluster at 24076, 23796 and 23571.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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