EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for September 17, 2021

The Euro is trading higher on Friday as the U.S. Dollar gave back some of yesterday’s gains. Nonetheless, slightly higher Treasury yields may be helping to cap gains.

Despite the early strength, the Euro held near its lowest level against the U.S. Dollar since August 27, reached during Thursday’s session. Yesterday’s selling pressure was fueled by better-than-expected retail sales data in the United States that boosted bets on the strength of the U.S. economy and earlier monetary policy tightening.

At 10:30 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1785, up 0.0017 or +0.15%.

To recap Thursday’s events, U.S. retail sales unexpectedly increased in August, rising 0.7% from the previous month despite expectations of a 0.8% decline, while a business sentiment survey by the Philadelphia Fed also showed a big improvement. However, jobless claims for the week ended September 11 came in at 332,000, above a Dow Jones forecast of 320,000.

Later today, the University of Michigan is due to release its preliminary consumer and inflation data for September at 14:00 GMT. These reports could be the source of intraday volatility. Consumer sentiment is expected to rise to 71.9 from 70.3. Last month, inflation expectations came in at 4.6%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending lower. A trade through 1.1664 will change the main trend to down. A move through 1.1909 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is down. This is controlling the momentum. A trade through 1.1750 will indicate the downside momentum is getting stronger. Taking out the minor bottom at 1.1726 will reaffirm the trend. The minor trend will change to up on a trade through 1.1846.

The short-term range is 1.1664 to 1.1909. The EUR/USD is currently trading inside its retracement zone at 1.1787 to 1.1758.

The main range is 1.1603 to 1.1975. Its retracement zone at 1.1820 to 1.1856 is resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the EUR/USD on Friday will be determined by trader reaction to 1.1758.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1758 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is the 50% level at 1.1787. Taking out this level with strong volume could lead to an extension of the rally into the main 50% level at 1.1820.

Bearish Scenario

The inability to overcome 1.1787 will indicate the early buying is weakening. A trade through 1.1758 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. A move through 1.1750 could trigger a steep break into the minor bottom at 1.1726.

The minor bottom at 1.1726 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with 1.1664 the next major target price.