EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis October 15, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 00:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD fell 100 points to trade at 1.2652 after CPI data around the eurozone and the total eurozone numbers missed

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis October 15, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD fell 100 points to trade at 1.2652 after CPI data around the eurozone and the total eurozone numbers missed expectations. Today’s data should push Mario Draghi into a corner and supports the comments from the IMF which suggested the eurozone could be headed towards a recession and that the ECB needed to take aggressive action. The dollar climbed against the euro amid speculation the U.S. is one of the best-placed countries to weather a worldwide slowdown, as reports across Europe highlighted signs of economic weakness.

The 18-nation shared currency dropped after reports today showed industrial production in the region slumped and a measure of German investor confidence decreased for a 10th month. The pound fell against most of its major peers as a report showed U.K. inflation dropped to a five-year low. The Swedish krona plunged after deflation worsened.

The greenback pared a decline from yesterday triggered by Federal Reserve officials saying that slower global growth may delay U.S. interest-rate increases. The U.S. economy will expand 2.2 percent this year and 3 percent in 2015, according to Bloomberg News surveys. The euro area’s will grow 0.8 percent and 1.3 percent.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
GBP	BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (	-2.1%	1.0%	1.3%
AUD	NAB Business Confidence (Sep)	5		7
EUR	French CPI (MoM) (Sep)	-0.4%	-0.3%	0.4%
EUR	French HICP (MoM) (Sep)	-0.4%	-0.3%	0.5%
EUR	Spanish CPI (MoM) (Sep)	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
EUR	Italian CPI (MoM) (Sep)	-0.4%	-0.3%	-0.4%
GBP	CPI (MoM) (Sep)	0.0%	0.2%	0.4%
GBP	CPI (YoY) (Sep)	1.2%	1.4%	1.5%
GBP	PPI Input (MoM) (Sep)	-0.6%	-0.4%	-1.2%
EUR	German ZEW Conditions (Oct)	3.2	18.0	25.4
EUR	German ZEW Sentiment (Oct)	-3.6	1.0	6.9
EUR	Industrial Production (MoM)	-1.8%	-1.6%	0.9%
EUR	ZEW Economic Sentiment	4.1	7.1	14.2

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

	Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Wednesday, October 15
	CNY	CPI (YoY) (Sep)		1.7%	2.0%
	EUR	ECB President Draghi
	GBP	Claimant Count Change		-35.0K	-37.2K
	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)		0.3%	0.3%
	USD	PPI (MoM) (Sep)		0.1%	0.0%
	USD	Retail Sales (MoM)		-0.1%	0.6%
	EUR	ECB President Draghi