Micron Gave the Nasdaq-100 Futures a Late Bid
December E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are edging higher Wednesday night after Micron beat estimates and raised its outlook. The AI trade finally has something to work with. It comes after a regular session where tech held up while the Dow Jones Industrial Average got hit hard.
It’s a narrow bid, though. Softer inflation data cut the October hike odds earlier in the day, however, Treasury yields kept climbing anyway. One report was never going to kill the rate trade. It got pushed to Thursday and Friday, that’s all.
At 22:54 GMT, December E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are trading at 30,778.25, up 79.50 points or +0.26%. December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading at 7,734.25, up 18.75 points or +0.24%.
Daily December E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures Technical Analysis
December E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are trading inside the 30,725.75 to 30,812.75 retracement zone after Micron’s earnings report. The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the main top at 31,094.75 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A trade through the main bottom at 29,053.00 will change the main trend to down.
The first support is 30,074.00, followed by 29,833.00 and the 50-day moving average at 29,768.60. The nearest resistance is the upper boundary of the retracement zone at 30,812.75.
Daily December E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures Technical Analysis
December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading above the 50-day moving average at 7,732.47 in the overnight session. The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the main top at 7,848.50 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A trade through the main bottom at 7,575.00 will change the main trend to down.
The minor trend is down. A trade through the lower top at 7,814.75 will change the minor trend to up and shift momentum higher.
NASDAQ 100 Price Forecast
Every new NASDAQ 100 analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all NASDAQ 100 forecastsThe nearest resistance zone is 7,777.00 to 7,793.75. The first support zone is 7,711.75 to 7,679.50.
Micron’s Memory Numbers Put AI Buyers Back to Work
Beat, then raise. Micron posted adjusted earnings of $33.42 a share on $54.23 billion in revenue, clearing estimates of $31.61 and $51.07 billion. Guidance did the real work, though. Fiscal first-quarter revenue is coming in around $61.5 billion by the company’s count, with the Street at $57 billion.
Memory’s still one of the tightest corners of the AI buildout, and DRAM backs that up. Fourth-quarter DRAM revenue hit $39.8 billion, up 343% from a year ago. Data-center revenue jumped more than elevenfold.
Chip stocks spent the regular session lagging the Nasdaq rally. Micron’s up in extended trading now, and I’d expect Nvidia, AMD and the rest of the semis to get a look from buyers Thursday because of it.
Alphabet added to the AI tape with its Gemini 4 Argon release. Google said the model improves coding, cybersecurity and complex professional tasks. It’s already running internally to improve memory use at Google’s own data centers.
Bonds Ignored the Soft PCE and Kashkari Piled On
Bond traders didn’t buy the PCE relief. Yields on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury went through 5.30% Wednesday and stayed parked near the 2007 high. Out on the long end, the 30-Year pushed above 5.60%, highest since 2002.
Headline PCE slowed to 3.4% in August from 3.7%. Core printed 3.0% against a 3.3% forecast. Pretty good report. October hike odds slid toward the mid-30% area on it, and Treasuries sold off anyway.
Only the Nasdaq Composite Index managed to finish higher in the regular session. The S&P 500 Index slipped 0.3% while the Dow shed more than 440 points, a 0.9% drop. Without a bond rally behind it, the better inflation data never spread much past tech.
Neel Kashkari made it worse after the close. Inflation remains too high, the Minneapolis Fed President said, and August PCE didn’t change the story much for him. He also pointed to resilient growth and consumer spending. Not what the bulls wanted to hear after the bell.
The Dow Paid for September’s Rate Pain
Rough month for the Dow. It lost 4.3% in September while the S&P 500 Index gave up 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite Index picked up 1.9%. Stretch it out to the third quarter and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were each up about 2%, with the Dow down 2.7%.
Yields and oil made the broad market a tough hold all month. The AI leaders kept enough money in tech to hold the Nasdaq up. Micron gives that same crowd a shot at starting October with a bid.
What to Watch
Initial jobless claims hit Thursday morning, with Nike reporting after the close. Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report is the bigger one. October odds already came down on PCE. December is still live after Kashkari, and claims gets the first crack at it.
The main trend is up on both daily swing charts. Micron’s guidance handed Nasdaq-100 buyers their catalyst. The futures pushed into the retracement zone after the report and were trading inside it at 22:54 GMT. Buyers still have to get through 30,812.75.
December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are holding just above the 50-day moving average in the overnight session, with the minor trend still down. The 50-day moving average at 7,732.47 is likely to help set the early tone Thursday.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.
