Nasdaq 100: Nvidia Leads AI Rally as Cybersecurity ETF Eyes Best Day Since April

Nvidia Answered the Question and the Nasdaq Took It From There

Nvidia jumped 7.3% after issuing a forward guide that cleared the bar the street had set for the AI buildout. The Nasdaq ran with it. Software and cybersecurity stocks are piling on behind Salesforce and CrowdStrike, both up more than 14%. The rally is concentrated. It has not spread. Declining issues outnumber advancers on the NYSE while the Nasdaq has more new lows than new highs even with the index up more than 1%. The money is going into AI and the names attached to it. Everything else is trading its own problems.

At 16:08 GMT, the Nasdaq Composite was trading 350.94 points higher, or +1.34%, at 26,481.14. The S&P 500 rose 49.15 points, or +0.64%, to 7,724.85. The Dow added 136.97 points, or +0.26%, to 53,600.85.

The Nasdaq-100 is pressing against a resistance cluster near the 50-day moving average it just crossed. The close tells you whether Thursday’s bid has follow-through or stalls at the same levels that stopped previous attempts.

Daily September E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index Futures Technical Analysis

September E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index futures are edging higher on Thursday after crossing to the bullish side of the 50-day moving average at 29444.32, which could become new support.

The rally is being challenged by a resistance cluster formed by the intermediate 61.8% level at 29610.75 and the short-term 50% level at 29645.00. This cluster may have helped put in the intraday high at 29662.00.

Currently, the index is trading below resistance at 29520.25. This is close enough to the 50-day MA to consider a late session retest of this indicator.

On the upside, a sustained move over 29645.00 will likely target a 61.8% level at 29808.75. Upside momentum could increase on a sustained move over this level.

On the downside, breaking the 50-day MA is likely to be a sign of weakness with an intraday target at 29303.75, followed by an intermediate 50% price at 29150.75.

Based on the early price action, it looks like the E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index is setting up for a volatile second half of the day.

Nvidia’s Forward Guide Changed the Conversation

Nvidia did not win Thursday on the earnings beat. The forward guide is the event. The company told the street that supply is the constraint, not demand. Memory shortages are limiting how fast the industry can build. Nvidia is saying it could sell more if the parts were available.

The customer mix is shifting. Last year’s build was concentrated in the biggest cloud buyers and a handful of frontier labs. New labs, startups, regional AI companies and enterprises are now placing orders. That reduces the concentration risk that has been sitting over the chip trade for months. Micron and Marvell are both up about 1% on the same story.

Salesforce and CrowdStrike Are Taking the Software Bear Case Apart

Salesforce is up 14.4% after raising its outlook and rolling out an AI plug-in with Anthropic that writes the email, feeds the rep and updates the record. CrowdStrike is up 14.5% after raising its annual revenue forecast. ServiceNow is higher by 5%. Palo Alto Networks is up 8.5%. SailPoint, Okta, Tenable, Netskope and Rubrik are all moving with the group.

The Software & Services ETF hit a new all-time high. The Cybersecurity ETF is pacing for its best day since April 2025. The market has been pricing software stocks as if AI tools are going to replace older subscription businesses. Thursday’s numbers say that trade is wrong. Salesforce is showing AI tools converting to revenue. CrowdStrike is showing cybersecurity demand holding together. The group is catching a bid because buyers have stopped treating AI as a threat to software and started treating it as a reason to own the stronger names.

Breadth Is Narrow and the Names Left Behind Tell the Story

Declining issues are leading on the NYSE. The Nasdaq has more new lows than new highs even on a day when the composite is up more than 350 points. The S&P 500 has more new highs than new lows but the split across exchanges says the buying is targeted, not broad.

Stocks in the News

HP is lower after its PC business showed weaker shipments and margins. Dollar General is holding its annual sales forecast steady without giving buyers a reason to step in. Moderna slipped after announcing a convertible-bond sale.

The Fed Is Not Making Thursday’s Rally Any Easier to Hold

Wednesday’s PCE report came in slightly hotter than expected. Thursday’s jobless claims showed fewer Americans filing than Wall Street anticipated. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said current interest rates are not restrictive and backed higher rates. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack called for tighter policy and said financial conditions do not look restrictive.

Two Fed officials calling for higher rates on the same day Nvidia rallied 7% is the tension sitting underneath this market. The AI trade has the buyers. The rate trade has not given them permission to stay.

What to Watch

Nvidia gave the Nasdaq a catalyst and Salesforce and CrowdStrike gave software buyers a reason to come back to the group. The breadth underneath the rally is thin. The Fed officials who spoke Thursday are not backing away from higher rates and PCE came in warm. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks Friday at Jackson Hole. The market wants to know whether the central bank is still drawing a hard line at its inflation target. Nvidia is winning Thursday. Warsh has the last word before the weekend.

The Nasdaq-100 crossed above the 50-day moving average and ran into a resistance cluster that put in the intraday high. The close relative to that cluster sets the direction. Holding above the 50-day keeps Thursday’s move alive heading into Warsh. Losing it says the rally stalls at the same place it has stalled before.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.