Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Is Oil Done Falling at $61 or Just Pausing Before $60?

Market Overview

Crude oil prices dropped quickly after geopolitical tensions eased, leading investors to rethink risks in energy markets. WTI crude fell 4 to 5 percent to about $61.50 to $62.50 per barrel, one of the biggest single-day drops in recent months. This move brought prices down from January highs of around $66 to $71.

This drop shows how quickly the extra price from supply fears, especially around major shipping routes, disappeared. As tensions eased, traders started paying more attention to basic market factors again.

OPEC+ kept production steady, and forecasts still suggest there will be plenty of global supply and slower demand growth in 2026. Natural gas prices also fell, showing less volatility across the energy sector.

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Holds $3.60 After Sharp Pullback Inside Rising Channel

Natural gas futures are trading around $3.64 per MMBtu after a strong rally stopped at the top of the rising price channel on the 4-hour chart. Recent candles show small indecision bars near $3.70, followed by a slight pullback, which suggests buyers are pausing instead of leaving the market quickly. The price is still above the $3.55 to $3.60 support zone, which matches the channel midline and short-term trend.

The overall trend is still positive since the price is above the 50-EMA, and the 200-EMA near $2.60 is still rising, which supports the medium-term uptrend. The RSI has dropped to about 55, moving away from overbought levels and leaving room for another move higher if momentum returns. If the price breaks above $3.75, it could head toward $4.30, but if it closes below $3.55, it may signal a deeper pullback.

Trade idea: Consider buying on dips near $3.55, aiming for a move up to $4.20, but this idea is invalid if the price falls below $3.40.

WTI Oil Price Forecast: USOIL $61 Break Tests Bull Channel as Momentum Slips

WTI crude oil has dropped to about $61.60 after it could not stay above the top of the rising price channel from late January. On the 2-hour chart, several strong bearish candles pushed the price below the channel midline and the 50-EMA, showing that upward momentum is weakening instead of fully reversing.

The price is now testing support between $62.10 and $61.50, which also matches a minor Fibonacci retracement from the recent move up. If the price falls below this area, it could drop to $60.20 and then $58.90, which is the lower channel support.

On the other hand, $63.70 and $64.80 are still important resistance levels. The RSI is now below 40, which means sellers are in control, but they are not yet showing signs of exhaustion.

Trade idea: Consider buying if the price bounces near $61.50 for a short-term move up to $63.70, or look to sell if the price drops clearly below $60.20.

Brent Oil Price Forecast: UKOIL Slips Below $66 as Rising Channel Breaks

Brent crude is trading around $65.70 after being strongly rejected at the top of the rising channel that has guided prices since late January. On the 2-hour chart, several large bearish candles pushed the price below the channel midline and the 50-period EMA, showing that buyers have lost control of the short-term trend.

This breakdown also pulled the price below the $66.80 to $67.00 support zone, which is now acting as near-term resistance. If the price keeps falling, the next support levels are $64.25 and then $62.90, which match previous demand areas and the lower trend line. The RSI is near 35, showing strong bearish momentum, but there is not yet a sign of a bounce.

Trade idea: Consider selling if the price rallies toward $66.80, aiming for a target near $64.30, or wait for the market to stabilize before looking for buying opportunities.