Bitcoin Weekly Outlook: Can BTC Hold $75K Support With Fed, Jobs Data in Focus?

Bitcoin (BTC) extended its selloff after posting its worst weekly drop since March 2025.

The top cryptocurrency fell more than 3% on Monday, briefly dipping toward $74,500 before staging a modest rebound. BTC ended last week down nearly 11%, keeping bearish momentum in play as the new week begins.

Jobs Data and US Government Shutdown Risk Loom Over Bitcoin

Bitcoin enters the new week under pressure as macro risk events stack up and volatility remains elevated.

Crypto markets are bracing for the monthly US jobs report alongside major earnings from tech heavyweights like Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).

These factors could spill over into crypto via risk sentiment. Still, Bitcoin’s recent breakdown and weak follow-through point to a bearish technical bias in the short run. Add the risk of a US government shutdown, and downside risks remain skewed lower.

That said, I have a moderately bearish outlook for Bitcoin this week.

What could challenge my forecast? If the past two sessions’ selling was enough to flush out speculative positioning, risk assets could stabilize, allowing Bitcoin to rebound and finish the week higher.

No Imminent Rate Cuts Could Cap Bitcoin’s Upside

Last week, the Fed signaled it’s in no rush to cut rates, saying policy still looks broadly “about right” at current levels.

Then, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data came in hot: headline PPI rose 0.5% in December, and core PPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.7%, both above expectations.

That suggests inflation pressures are still sticky, which lowers the urgency for rate cuts. President Trump’s pick of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair was seen as slightly dovish, but it doesn’t change the near-term setup much.

If cuts aren’t close, risk investors may stay cautious, which is often a headwind for Bitcoin.

Hot Take: Watch Dollar

The bloodbath in Bitcoin and the broader crypto market coincided with a rising US dollar.

As of Monday, the US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the greenback’s strength against top foreign currencies, was at 97.29, up 1.82% from its nadir last week.

Technically, it will attempt to approach the 20-day exponential moving average (20-day EMA; the green wave) at around 97.44 later this week.

If the negative correlation persists, Bitcoin may decline due to a stronger dollar narrative.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

BTC/USD Daily Chart Outlook: Moderate Bounce Expected if Tech Earnings Come Positive

Bitcoin is testing its final support zone between $74,500 and $76,500, a range that served as a strong demand zone in April 2025, preceding a circa 70% upside move.

The cryptocurrency’s daily relative strength index (RSI) was deeply oversold as of Monday, increasing the odds of a short-term bounce.

If broader risk sentiment improves, especially on strong tech earnings later this week, BTC/USD could attempt a rebound toward its 20-day EMA (at over $86,000).

Alternatively, price may consolidate within this range as the market looks for direction. A clean breakdown below support may open the door toward the $70,000 psychological level.

Bitcoin Weekly Chart Outlook: Four-Year Cycle in Play 

My weekly outlook on Bitcoin remains aggressively bearish. I am seeing Bitcoin repeating its four-year cycle structure, which may lead its price further down toward its 200-week EMA (the blue wave) at around $68,000.

Historically, pullbacks to this long-term average have been common during mid-to-late cycle corrections across the previous four-year cycles.

Such moves can feel severe in the moment, but they typically mark areas where selling pressure starts to fade, and the market bottoms out.