Natural Gas Price Analysis – Natural Gas Gaps Higher as US LNG Export Demand Rises

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

The natural gas market has gapped higher to show signs of life on Monday as the reports of increased liquefied natural gas exports out of the United States pick up. That does make sense. For a couple of days now, I’ve been talking about Qatar picking up a certain amount of natural gas to fulfill orders in the European Union. The question is, will this be a long-term thing? And that’s going to be difficult to answer because a lot of it will probably come down to the situation between the Americans and the Iranians and where that goes.

Furthermore, I’m not really sure how the construction is going in Qatar to repair production, but a few weeks ago I heard that they were back up to 80% capacity. So, I don’t think it’s going to be a disaster unless, of course, things get worse, but this does have major implications on European exports out of the United States.

Seasonal Effects and Key Technical Levels

We are starting to head towards the October contract that has people generally looking for higher prices due to the seasonal effect, but we’ll just have to wait and see how that plays out. Natural gas is going to be a very volatile market most of the time in short-term trading, so a lot of short-term traders like this market.

It is still in a seasonally bearish time of year, so that’s something that I keep in the back of my mind, but the jump on Monday is something to take note of. The 50-day EMA sits at the $2.92 level, and the $3 level just above there has been important multiple times. So, the question now would be whether or not there’s enough runway for the bulls to truly take advantage of any momentum.

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