Oil prices consolidate in early Asian trading on Thursday as traders weigh stalled talks between the US and Iran against a recovery in exports of the Middle East. Brent oil trades near $101 while WTI oil stood near $90. Supply concerns supported crude oil prices, but improved crude oil flows limited further gains. The market now waits for clear signs of any progress in negotiations.
The recovery of supply still remains uneven. Crude flows in the Middle East were approaching pre-conflict levels while supplies of fuel recovered more slowly. The market also remains uncertain about whether higher exports could continue without the lasting agreement on the Strait of Hormuz.
US fuel policy adds another factor to watch for the oil market. President Donald Trump said he still considers ban on diesel exports. He acknowledged that it could lower the cost of domestic diesel but increase gasoline prices. In my view, the recovery in the export of Gulf may limit the upside in oil, but shortages in fuel and uncertain shipping conditions could support prices. This article presents the main supply risks and market forces that may shape the next move in oil prices.
WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Break Above $93 Could Put $104 in View
WTI crude oil prices pulled back in September to close the month near $90 with an over 4.50% gain. The sharp shadow on the monthly candle for September suggests uncertainty in the short term. WTI oil reached a high of $106.75 in September, which has been the resistance that I have been discussing for the past few months.
This is the second attempt to break the $106 area in 2026, but the price failed to break this in September. This resistance is important due to the descending channel pattern that stretches from the July 2008 highs. A confirmed monthly close above $106 will likely trigger a strong breakout and open the way for a strong rally towards the $150 area in the long term.
However, the sharp shadow on the monthly candle for September suggests that the direction remains uncertain in the short term and prices may drop to find the next direction. However, the RSI remains above the midline, which suggests that the trend remains positive as long as prices remain above the $60 area in the long term.
The daily chart for WTI oil also indicates that the outlook remains uncertain as the price consolidates between $87 and $93. The price gained 1.57% on Wednesday but still remains negative. Despite this negative action, the price still remains above the 50-day SMA at $88.
A daily close below $87 will indicate further downside towards the 200-day SMA in the $82 area. But a daily close above $93 will push prices further to the upside toward the $104 region. The RSI remains below the midline on the daily chart which suggests a negative trend in the short term.
Brent Oil Price Forecast
Every new Brent Oil analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all Brent Oil forecastsBrent Crude Oil Forecast: $95 Support Holds the Key
The daily chart for Brent crude oil shows a positive structure above the 50- and 200-day SMAs as the price consolidates around the $100 area. The key support in Brent is $95. As long as the price remains above $95, the possibility of another rally towards $113 is high.
The strong support in Brent oil comes from the ascending trendline that stretches from the December 2025 lows. Moreover, the RSI remains near the midline, which shows neutral price action in the short term.
However, Brent crude oil remains well above the pre-war levels and shows strong volatility between $70 and $120. The price reached a high in September at $111.44 and is consolidating as it finds the next move.
Bottom Line
Oil prices remain caught between the recovery in Gulf exports and supply risks. If more crude reaches buyers, it could limit gains. But the shortage of fuel and uncertain shipping conditions may support crude prices. WTI needs a daily close above $93 to strengthen the case for a move towards $104. But a close below $87 would increase the risk of a decline towards $82.
Brent maintains a positive structure above $95, which suggests a rally towards $113. But a break below $95 in Brent will suggest a decline to $80. The progress in negotiations between the US and Iran and reliable shipping flows could ease supply concerns. Until then, oil prices may remain volatile as traders wait for a clear direction.
Read more: Brent and WTI Rise as Strait of Hormuz Risks Persist
