XRP extended its losing streak to five sessions on Saturday, November 15, as Canary the XRP ETF (XRPC) saw a drop in trading volume on day two. Investors continued to take profit after XRPC’s first day of trading failed to trigger a price breakout.
Fading bets on a December Fed rate cut sent the broader crypto market into a tailspin this week. BTC-spot ETF reflected market sentiment, with net outflows of $1.11 billion in the reporting week ending November 14.
XRP’s sharp reversal came despite the anticipated launch of 21Shares, Bitwise, CoinShares, and Franklin Templeton XRP-spot ETFs in the week ahead.
XRPC impressed on day one of trading, with $59 million in trading volume and net inflows of $245 million. However, volumes dropped to $26 million on Friday, November 14, weighing on the appetite for XRP on Saturday, November 15.
The broader crypto market sell-off and BTC-spot ETF outflows likely influenced institutional demand.
However, demand for XRP could soar in the week ahead, given the launch of Bitwise and Franklin Templeton’s XRP-spot ETFs.
Franklin Templeton is the largest ETF issuer launching a spot ETF, with assets under management of $43.16 billion. The ETF is expected to launch on Tuesday, November 18. Meanwhile, Bitwise has $5.7 billion in AUM, also dwarfing Canary Capital’s $71.2 million in AUM. The Bitwise XRP ETF is slated to launch between November 19 and 20.
Analysts expect Franklin Templeton and Bitwise to dominate the XRP-spot ETF market, given the absence of a BlackRock (BLK) iShares XRP Trust. Robust inflows could trigger a reversal of recent losses, potentially sending XRP toward $3.
The timing of XRP-spot ETF launches is everything. Fading bets on a December Fed rate cut and rising stagflation risks could dampen initial demand for XRP through ETFs.
In the week ahead, crucial US inflation and jobs data will influence risk assets. Rising consumer prices and a deteriorating labor market could weigh on demand for risk assets, such as XRP and XRP-spot ETFs.
FOMC members have recently raised concerns about elevated inflation, lowering bets on a December rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a rate cut dropped from 66.9% on Friday, November 7, to 44.4% on Friday, November 14.
With key US economic reports in focus, traders should closely monitor FOMC member speeches. Reactions to the incoming data and views on monetary policy are likely to influence sentiment.
XRP fell 0.40% on Saturday, November 15, following the previous day’s 3.37% loss, closing at $2.2354. The token underperformed the broader crypto market, which rose 1.12%.
Five consecutive days of losses left XRP trading well below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating bearish momentum.
Looking ahead, several scenarios could trigger a trend reversal, potentially sending XRP toward $3.
Key technical levels to watch include:
In the near term, several key events will likely influence price trends:
These bearish events could push XRP toward $2.2, exposing the lower trendline. If breached, $2 would be the next key support level.
The descending channel showed failed breakouts above the upper trendline in early October. This led to lower highs and lower lows, a bearish indicator. However, the lower trendline provided crucial support in early November. Support at the lower trendline remains crucial; a drop below the lower trendline could open the door to testing the $2 psychological support. See the chart below for reference.
A breakout above the $2.35 resistance level could pave the way toward $2.5. A sustained move through $2.5 could bring the 50-day and 200-day EMAs into play. A break above the EMAs could open the door to testing the $2.62 resistance level, with the next key resistance level being the upper trendline.
Fading bets on a December Fed rate cut and rising stagflation risks have left XRP deep in the red for the week.
However, institutional demand for spot ETFs and progress toward crypto-friendly legislation could lift sentiment.
The next 72 hours may dictate whether XRP breaks its five-day downtrend and whether the token finally decouples from Bitcoin.
With over 28 years of experience in the financial industry, Bob has worked with various global rating agencies and multinational banks. Currently he is covering currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes and global equities, focusing mostly on European and Asian markets.