XRP News Today: ETF Inflows Clash With Retail Fear

Largest on-chain realized loss spike since 2022 sends XRP below $1.40 as retail investors hit the panic button over Bitcoin (BTC) dropping toward its February low of $60,000. The on-chain data and demand for US XRP-spot ETFs sent conflicting signals, leaving XRP with heavier losses in February.

On Sunday, February 22, XRP dipped to a session low of $1.3805 before steadying.

Increased optimism about US banks and crypto representatives agreeing on stablecoin yields to progress the Market Structure Bill cushioned the downside. Resilient demand for US XRP-spot ETFs underscored institutional investor sentiment toward XRP utility and the prospect of crypto-friendly legislation.

These fundamentals support a bullish medium-term (4-8 weeks) outlook for XRP, with a price target of $2.5.

Below, I will explore the key drivers behind recent price trends, the medium-term outlook, and the technical levels traders should watch.

On-Chain Data Spooks Retail Investors

Last week, market intelligence platform Santiment commented on surging on-chain realized losses, which weighed on retail investor sentiment. Santiment stated:

“XRP has seen its largest on-chain realized loss spike since 2022. […]. Significant realized losses happen when a large number of investors sell their coins at a price lower than what they originally paid. This usually coincides with fear taking over. When traders panic and capitulate, they lock in their losses instead of holding and hoping for a rebound.”

However, Santiment added that historically, these trends could signal a breakout, stating:

“Historically, large spikes in realized losses often show up near market bottoms. This is because extreme fear tends to peak before price does. Once sellers are exhausted, even a small amount of new buying pressure can push prices higher. That does not guarantee an immediate rally, but it increases the probability of a bounce.”

According to Santiment:

“When the previous weekly milestone of -1.93B in realized losses occurred 39 months ago, XRP proceeded to jump +114% over the next 8 months.”

Crucially, resilient demand for XRP-spot ETFs and extreme fear suggest a potential price recovery. However, the progress of the Market Structure Bill will be key, given XRP’s price sensitivity to crypto-related legislative developments.

Analysts expect crypto-friendly legislation to strengthen Ripple’s momentum on Main Street and boost XRP utility. Crypto-spot ETF flow trends suggest that institutional investors hold a similar view.

The US XRP-spot ETF market saw $1.84 million in net inflows in the reporting week ending February 20, extending the inflow streak to three weeks. In contrast, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw net outflows of $315.9 million, extending the outflow streak to five weeks.

XRP Price Forecast: Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Targets

XRP has fallen 5% year-to-date, supporting a cautiously bearish short-term outlook (1-4 weeks), with a target price of $1.0.

However, XRP-spot ETF flows, improving sentiment toward the US Senate passing the Market Structure Bill, and increased XRP utility affirm the bullish medium- to long-term price projections:

• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $2.5.
• Longer-term (8-12 weeks): $3.0.

Key Downside Risks to the Bullish Medium-Term Outlook

Several events could unravel the constructive medium-term bias. These include:

• A US-Iran conflict.
• US economic data cool bets on an H1 2026 Fed rate cut.
• Delays and/or partisan opposition to the Market Structure Bill.
• Extended periods of XRP-spot ETF net outflows.

Additionally, traders should consider Bank of Japan rhetoric and USD/JPY trends, given the impact of the mid-2024 yen carry trade unwind on XRP.

A hawkish Bank of Japan, with a higher neutral interest rate (potentially 1.5%-2.5%), would signal multiple BoJ rate hikes. Multiple hikes would narrow US-Japan rate differentials in favor of the yen. Narrowing rate differentials could trigger a yen carry trade unwind, drying up market liquidity. For context, the BoJ previously announced a wider neutral rate band of 1%-2.5% but stated it would announce a narrower range at a later date.

These events would weigh on XRP, send the token toward $1.0, and reinforce the cautiously bearish short-term outlook.

Technical Analysis: Levels to Watch

XRP slid 2.57% on Sunday, February 22, reversing the previous day’s 0.08% gain to close at $1.3933. The token faced heavier losses than the broader crypto market cap, which dropped 0.77%.

The pullback left XRP well below its 50-day and 200-day EMAs. The EMA positions indicated a bearish bias. The 50-day EMA steepened against the 200-day EMA, suggesting increasing near-term selling pressure. However, several favorable fundamentals continue to offset bearish technicals, supporting the bullish medium-term outlook. Despite these favorable fundamentals, short-term technicals remain bearish.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $1.0, and then $0.7773.
• 50-day EMA resistance: $1.6562.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.0947.
• Resistance levels: $1.5, $2.0, $2.5, and $3.0.

On the daily chart, a breakout above $1.50 would enable the bulls to target the 50-day EMA. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA would indicate a near-term bullish trend reversal. A bullish trend reversal would pave the way toward the 200-day EMA.

A sustained break above the EMAs would affirm a bullish trend reversal and reinforce the medium- to longer-term price targets.

Fundamental Events Driving Near-Term Price Action

Near-term price drivers include:

• XRP-spot ETF flow trends.
• US economic indicators and the Fed rate path.
• Crypto-related regulatory developments.
• The Bank of Japan’s neutral rate and policy stance.
• Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Bearish Structure Intact: $1.0 Remains Crucial Support

Following Sunday’s loss, XRP ended the week down 5.56%, affirming the existing bearish trend. A break below the lower trendline would bring the February 6 low of $1.1227 into play. If breached, $1.0 would be the next key support level. A sustained fall through $1.0 would reinforce the cautiously bearish short-term outlook and further validate the bearish structure.

However, a breakout above $1.5 would open the door to testing $2.0 and the upper trendline. A sustained move through the upper trendline would invalidate the bearish structure and indicate a bullish trend reversal, reinforcing the constructive medium-term bias.

• Short-term (1-4 weeks): $1.0.
• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $2.5.
• Longer-term (8-12 weeks): target of $3.0.

XRP Outlook: Geopolitics, Crypto Legislation, and ETF Flows in Focus

Looking ahead, developments in the Middle East will influence market risk appetite. An increased threat of a US-Iran conflict would likely overshadow crypto-related legislative developments.

Nevertheless, the continued progress of the Market Structure Bill on Capitol Hill would reinforce the bullish medium- to longer-term outlook for XRP.

However, central bank rhetoric, US economic data, President Trump’s tariff policies, and XRP-spot ETF flow trends will also dictate XRP’s price projection.

A more dovish Fed and a lower BoJ neutral rate (potentially 1%-1.25%) would boost sentiment. Robust demand for US XRP-spot ETFs and favorable crypto-related legislative developments would drive buying interest in XRP.

In summary, these scenarios would support a medium-term (4–8 weeks) move to $2.5. The US Senate passing the Market Structure Bill would reaffirm the longer-term (8-12 weeks) price target of $3.0.

Beyond 12 weeks, these events may send XRP to its all-time high of $3.66 (Binance). A break above $3.66 would reaffirm a 6- to 12-month price target of $5.