UK Referendum Too Close to Call as Voting Begins

Last minute polls have indicated that the UK referendum whether to leave the European Union (EU) or not, is likely to be a nail biting finish, with some surveys suggesting that voters are polarised.

Respected polling company YouGov revealed in their eve of referendum poll, that the Remain campaign has pulled clear with a slender 51% to 49% lead ahead of the support for the Leave camp.

There were three other polls conducted yesterday, which revealed that in two of the surveys, respondents in the majority wish to wrestle themselves away from the EU, an Opinium poll placed Leave in the lead by a single point of 45 per cent to 44 per cent , with 11 per cent still undecided with 24 hours to go.

A TNS poll found that the Leave campaign had taken a two point lead in front of those who preferred to remain in the EU, by 43 per cent to 41 per cent, with again 11 per cent undecided, in contrast a ComRes survey discovered that a significant margin of 48 per cent compared to 42 per cent were in favour of EU membership.

Yesterday marked a frantic day of last ditch campaigning which saw Prime Minister David Cameron and leading Leave campaigner and former Mayor of London Boris Johnson, both making whistle stop tours across the UK,  attempting to persuade any wavering voters to join them.

An estimated 46.5 million people are eligible to vote in the referendum, which is a new record for any UK poll in history, polling will close at 10PM GMT, and the results from local authorities will pour in through the night, with the final announcement expected around 6AM GMT tomorrow morning.

 Markets Set for Referendum Result As Pound Climbs

 The UK pound has continued its recent rise in the markets, as traders increasingly anticipate that the UK will remain in the EU. Polls in the last week have generally favoured remaining in the EU, as eight out of 13 revealed the Remain vote was ahead, leading to traders feeling more confident in the UK staying in the EU, evading the perceived instability that a ‘Brexit’ would prompt.

Up to the final few month of the campaign, the Remain vote had surpassed the Leave campaign, but in recent months the polling momentum has switched, with more of the UK electorate expressing their desire to move away from what they view as control via a bureaucracy from afar.

Currently the pound is buying $1.49,  GBP/USD rate is now at its highest point favouring sterling all year, and the markets now are bracing themselves for the result of the referendum.

Against the euro, the pound has also soared to its highest value for a month, as euro area countries could face uncertainties in the event of a ‘Brexit’, a close remain result could stir up calls for their own referendums.

Societe Generale predict that on a ‘Leave’ decision,  the GBP/USD  rate will fall to 1.30-1.35 quickly, and believe there will be an eventual fall to 1.20-1.25, the Euro would suffer too, falling to $1.04-1.08 initially, and potentially further over time.

This would take EUR/GBP to 0.80-0.85, and the Yen would out perform the dollar, with USD/JPY potentially breaking 100 temporarily.

On a  remain vote, market moves ought to be narrower, the bank said, GBP/USD can trade to $1.50-1.55 and EUR/USD could test the last year’s high of $1.17,  if that breaks we could still see a further spike to 1.20.

A EUR/USD rate of $1.17-1.20 and $1.50-1.55 with GBP/USD, represent long-term selling opportunities in their view, as both currency pairs will be too far out of line with underlying economic and policy prospects