ETH and a Return to $1,900 Reliant Upon Crypto Staking Numbers

Key Insights:

• On Saturday, ETH saw red for a third consecutive session, falling by 0.80% to end the day at $1,850.
• Sentiment toward Fed monetary policy weighed on ETH and the broader crypto market.
• However, the technical indicators remain bullish, signaling a return to $2,000.

Ethereum (ETH) fell by 0.80% on Saturday. Following a 0.43% loss on Friday, ETH ended the day at $1,850. ETH fell short of the $1,900 handle for the second consecutive session.

After a mixed start to the day, ETH rose to an early high of $1,881. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,885, ETH fell to a late low of $1,848. However, avoiding a fall through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,844, ETH revisited $1,857 before easing back.

Fed Fear and Pre-Shapella Upgrade ETH Staking Inflows Weigh

ETH staking inflows rose modestly on Saturday. While higher than Friday staking inflows, inflows were well below recent highs. However, the lower weekend levels are part of a year-to-date trend, limiting the impact of the number on ETH price action.

According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows rose from 12,000 ETH on Friday to 13,120 on Saturday. Inflows avoided sub-10,000 despite the Easter holidays.

ETH staking inflows and total value staked numbers will draw more interest as the Shapella upgrade date approaches. The Shapella upgrade will occur at epoch 194,048 or on approximately April 12 (Wed).

Despite another bearish session, the upward trend in total value stake continued.

While the ETH staking numbers were more upbeat, the possible effect of the US Jobs Report on Fed monetary policy left investors in a cautious mood. A fall in the US unemployment rate to 3.5% raised the probability of a 25-basis point Fed interest rate hike in May.

According to the CEM FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point Fed interest rate hike in May rose from 49.2% (Fri) to 71.2% on Saturday.

The Day Ahead

Investors should monitor staking inflows and total value staked trends for direction. A sharp decline would send a bearish signal.

However, investors should track Fed chatter and updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case. Additionally, ETH would likely continue to show sensitivity to regulatory and US lawmaker activity.

ETH sits in the middle of several crypto-related battles, including the SEC v Ripple case and the SEC v CFTC battle to rule the crypto skies.

Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news will also move the dial.

Ethereum (ETH) Price Action

At the time of writing, ETH was up 0.49% to $1,859. A mixed start to the day saw ETH fall to an early low of $1,848 before rising to a high of $1,861.

Technical Indicators

ETH needs to move through the $1,860 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,871 and the Saturday high of $1,881. A return to $1,875 would signal a breakout session. However, the crypto news wires should be crypto-friendly to support a breakout.

In the event of an extended rally, the bulls would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,893 and resistance at $1,900. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1,926.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,838 in play. However, barring an event-fueled crypto market sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,800. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,827 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,794.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. Ethereum sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,848. The 50-day EMA pulled further away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A hold above the 50-day EMA ($1,848) would support a breakout from R1 ($1,871) to target R2 ($1,893) and $1,900. However, a fall through the 50-day EMA ($1,848) would bring S1 ($1,838) into play. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.