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Economic Calendar:

Friday, 16th April

Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (Mar) Final

Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Mar) Final

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Eurozone CPI (MoM) (Mar) Final

Eurozone Trade Balance (Feb)

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The Majors

It was a bullish day for the European majors on Thursday, with the DAX30 recovering from Wednesday’s slip.

The DAX30 rise by 0.30%, with the CAC40 and the EuroStoxx600 gaining 0.41% and 0.48% respectively.

Once more the markets brushed aside negative COVID-19 vaccine news, with the markets looking beyond current vaccine woes.

Economic data from the U.S impressed to add support, with the markets expecting impressive earnings this season, adding to the ongoing optimism.

The Stats

It was a relatively busy day on the economic calendar on Thursday.

Finalized inflation figures for France, Germany, and Italy were in focus.

Germany

In Germany, consumer prices increased by 0.5% in March, which was in line with prelim figures. In February, consumer prices had risen by 0.7%. The annual rate of inflation accelerated from 1.3% to 1.7%, which was also in line with prelim figures.

According to Destatis,

  • The prices of services were up 1.6%, with prices of goods rising by 1.9% when compared with a year earlier.
  • Energy product prices were 4.8% higher than a year earlier, with food prices up by 1.6% compared with March 2020.

France

From France, consumer prices were also on the rise, with the annual rate of inflation picking up from 0.6% to 1.1%, which was in line with prelim figures. Month-on-month, consumer prices rose by 0.6% in March.

According to Insee.fr,

  • Year-on-year, service prices ticked up from 0.8% to 1.1%, with deflationary pressures for manufactured goods softening from -0.4% to -0.2%.

Italy

In Italy, the annual rate of inflation saw a more modest uptick from 0.6% to 0.8%, which was also in line with prelim figures. Month-on-month, consumer prices increased by 0.6% in March.

From the U.S

It was a busy day, with key stats including jobless claims, retail sales, and Philly FED Manufacturing numbers.

In the week ending 9th April, initial jobless claims decreased from 769k to 576k. Economists had forecast a decline to 700k.

Retail sales also impressed, after the disappointing figures from February.

In the month of March, retail sales jumped by 9.8%, reversing a 2.7% decline from February. Core retail sales rose by 8.4%, reversing a 2.5% decline from February.

Economists had forecast retail sales to rise by 5.9% and for core retail sales to increase by 5.0%.

From the manufacturing sector, the Philly FED Manufacturing PMI fell from 51.8 to 50.2 in April. Economists had forecast a sharper decline to 42.0, however.

Other stats included NY Empire State Manufacturing, industrial production, and business inventory numbers. These stats had a relatively muted impact on the European majors.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a bullish day for the auto sector on Thursday. Volkswagen rallied by 2.26%, with BMW and Continental rising by 1.61% and by 1.22% respectively. Daimler saw a more modest 0.41% gain on the day.

It was a bearish day for the banks, however. Deutsche Bank fell by 0.97%, with Commerzbank ending the day down by 1.93%.

From the CAC, it was a bearish day for the banks. Credit Agricole fell by 1.19%, with BNP Paribas and Soc Gen declining by 0.42% and by 0.92% respectively.

It was also a bearish day for the French auto sector. Stellantis NV slipped by 0.05%, with Renault falling by 0.62%.

Air France-KLM continued to see red, falling by 1.44%, while Airbus SE rallied by 2.61%.

On the VIX Index

It was back into the red the VIX on Thursday, marking a 5th daily fall in 7-sessions.

Reversing a 2.04% gain from Wednesday, the VIX fell by 2.47% to end the day at 16.57.

The NASDAQ and the S&P500 rose by 1.31% and by 1.11% respectively, with the Dow gaining 0.90%.

The Day Ahead

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the European economic calendar. Finalized March inflation figures for the Eurozone are due out alongside trade data for the Eurozone.

Barring a marked upward revision, we would expect the trade data to have a greater influence on the European majors.

Later in the day, economic data from the U.S will also influence, with prelim consumer sentiment figures for April in focus.

Ahead of the European session, economic data from China will set the tone early in the day.

Away from the economic calendar, the markets will also need to monitor the news wires as U.S tensions with China and Russia rise.

On the corporate earnings front, Morgan Stanley is due to release results later in the day.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was up by 10 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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