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Bob Mason
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Economic Calendar:

Tuesday, 10th November

German ZEW Current Conditions (Nov)

German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov)

Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov)

Thursday, 12th November

German CPI (MoM) (Oct) Final

ECB Economic Bulletin

Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)

Friday, 13th November

ECB President Lagarde Speaks

French CPI (MoM) (Oct) Final

French HICP (MoM) (Oct) Final

Spanish CPI (YoY) (Oct) Final

Spanish HICP (YoY) (Oct) Final

Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Q3) 2nd Estimate

Eurozone Trade Balance (Sep)

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The Majors

It was a particularly bullish day for the European majors on Monday. The CAC40 surged by 7.57% to lead the way, with the DAX30 and EuroStoxx600 rallying by 4.94% and by 3.98% respectively.

Economic data was on the lighter side, which failed to provide the majors with direction, leaving the markets in the hands of politics and COVID-19.

News from Pfizer of successful COVID-19 vaccine trials delivered the support to the majors at the start of the week.

Pfizer.inc reported a 90% efficacy rate in late-stage trials, which offset dire COVID-19 numbers recorded in the U.S and beyond.

The Stats

It was a relatively quiet day on the Eurozone economic calendar. Key stats included German trade figures for September.

In September, Germany’s trade surplus widened from €15.4bn to €17.8bn. Economists had forecasted a widening to €15.8bn.

According to Destatis,

  • Exports rose by 2.3% to €109.8bn, while imports fell by 0.1% to €89.0bn compared with the previous month.
  • Germany exported goods to the value of €59.1bn to EU member states, while importing goods to the value of €48.7bn.
  • Exports to euro area countries fell by 4.5% to €41.1bn, while German imports fell by 4.4% to €32.6bn.
  • Exports to EU countries not belonging to the EU fell by 0.4% to €18.0bn, with imports falling by 1.1% to €16.1bn.
  • With non-EU countries, exports fell by 4.4% to €50.7bn, with imports sliding by 5.4% to €40.3bn.

On the monetary policy front, ECB President Lagarde avoided monetary policy in a scheduled speech on Monday.

From the U.S

There were no material stats to provide the European majors with direction late in the day.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a particularly bullish day for the auto sector on Monday. . Continental surged by 8.32% to lead the way. BMW and Volkswagen rallied by 5.49% and by 5.30%, with Daimler gaining a more modest 3.83%.

It was also a bullish day for the banks. Deutsche Bank rallied by 4.78%, with Commerzbank surging by 15.37%

From the CAC, it was a particularly bullish day for the banks. BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole surged by 17.98% and by 13.67% respectively. Soc Gen jumped by 18.41%, however, to lead the way.

It was also a bullish day for the French auto sector. Peugeot rallied by 7.53%, with Renault ending the day up by 15.10%.

Air France-KLM was amongst the biggest gainers on the day, surging by 27.48%, with Airbus SE rallying by 18.57%.

On the VIX Index

It was a 1st day in the green from seven for the VIX on Monday. Partially reversing a 9.86% slide from Friday, the VIX rose by 3.58% to end the day at 25.75. A late bounce back delivered the upside for the day.

On Monday, the NASDAQ fell by 1.53%, while the Dow and the S&P500 saw gains of 2.95% and 1.17% respectively.

Trailing the European majors on the day, concerns over U.S stimulus pinned back the U.S majors late in the day.

From earlier in the day, Pfizer’s news of progress towards an effective vaccine had driven demand for the majors.

The Day Ahead

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the Eurozone economic calendar. Key stats include ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone.

With the 2nd wave of the COVID-19 pandemic hitting Europe, expect the numbers to influence.

From the U.S, JOLTs job openings for September should have a muted impact, barring a marked decline in openings.

Away from the economic calendar, the key risk drivers remain. Updates on Brexit, COVID-19, and U.S politics will continue to be in focus.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow was up by 14 points, while the DAX was down by 160.5 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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