Moderna (MRNA) Price Forecast: Bullish Pennant Points Toward Higher Targets

Moderna Pauses After Explosive Breakout

The stock of Moderna, Inc. (MRNA), a leading biotech company, has been consolidating in a relatively tight range since reaching a spike high of $176.66 two weeks ago. The sharp advance that led to that high broke above the long-term downtrend line, led by an opening upward gap that followed an important news catalyst. A joint venture with Merck reported that Phase 3 trials for a cancer vaccine had reached its main goals. At the high, MRNA had advanced by around 180.6% from the prior day’s close of $62.96.

Pennant Creates a New Decision Point

MRNA is now near its next decision point as a consolidation has formed into a potential bullish pennant pattern. This is an aggressive pattern since it is relatively short in duration. Therefore, it could fail or expand into a larger consolidation pattern. But since it follows important fundamental, as well as technical developments, it will be watched closely by active traders. Furthermore, whether the pattern breaks up or fails to the downside, it will provide new information about the stock very soon.

An upside breakout signal will occur above Wednesday’s lower swing high of $156.42, with strength then confirmed on a move above $161.37. That should be followed by an advance above $176.66 and a continuation of the prior sharp advance into higher targets.

$170.47 Stands Between MRNA and a Larger Reversal

Despite MRNA’s recent sharp advance, it still found resistance near the lower swing high of $170.47. A decisive continuation of the advance with a bull pennant breakout would trigger a bullish reversal signal of the prior downtrend. If a recovery of that level is sustained, and the bull pennant suggests that it may be, then the pennant projects another sharp move higher for MRNA. The more aggressive potential upside target derived from the pennant pattern is estimated near the lower swing high of $458.50 from September 2021.

Failure Below Support Would Change Everything

At the same time, a drop below Tuesday’s low of $138.09 would confirm a decline below the lower rising boundary of the pennant, suggesting a breakdown from consolidation. A move below the recent higher swing low of $133.33 would then confirm the bearish signal, leading to a bearish reversal instead of bullish continuation of the trend.

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