Natural Gas News: Storage Flips to Deficit, But Traders Eye Weather Forecast Today

Natural Gas Futures Steady Despite Massive Storage Draw

U.S. natural gas futures are nearly flat early Friday as traders shrug off yesterday’s huge storage draw and shift their focus to the weather.

At 10:20 GMT, March Natural Gas is trading $3.486, down $0.023 or -0.66%.

EIA Reports 360 Bcf Withdrawal, Flips to Deficit

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), “Working gas in storage was 2,463 Bcf as of Friday, January 30, 2026, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 360 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 41 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 27 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,490 Bcf. At 2,463 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.”

The number came in below the forecast, which may have capped gains a little, but the fact that this report showed that the previous surplus to the 5-year moving average had flipped to deficit should’ve shown a more positive reaction, in my opinion.

Why the Market Didn’t React to the Deficit

There are a couple of reasons why the flip to deficit didn’t send prices screaming higher. Firstly, it’s a little too early to be concerned. If there is still a deficit at the end of the spring shoulder season, then it could be bullish going into the summer cooling season. Another reason is that we may not see the impact on the nearby futures at this time because there is still time to refill the tanks. As the weather warms, traders expect demand to go down and production to rise. This would take care of any small deficit.

Natgasweather.com said, “It’s a very tricky draw to predict due to the challenges in accounting for freeze-offs, widespread power outages, lower LNG usage, and strong Canadian imports.” What this means is the 360 Bcf draw could’ve been higher or lower than reported.

Weather Forecasts Take Center Stage

Whatever the reason, traders have already moved on and are now refocusing on the weather. We’ll know more about the weather headed into the weekend later in the session. Right now, let’s call it a little supportive based on the early price action.

Technical Outlook: Range-Bound with Breakout Potential

Technically, the market is holding on the strong side of the 200-day moving average at $3.403, giving it a slight upside bias ahead of the regular session opening. Traders are also straddling a 50% level at $3.502. Overtaking this level with conviction could launch a rally into the 50-day moving average at $3.771.

Even if the 200-day MA fails as support, selling pressure could be stopped by Fibonacci support at $3.284 and this week’s low at $3.155.

Given the tight range, I expect to see some volatility later once the new weather forecasts are released. The longer the market stays inside the 50-day moving average at $3.771 and the 200-day MA at $3.403, the greater the breakout once it occurs.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.