Natural Gas Price Analysis – Natural Gas Stalls Near $2.50 Support as Supply Soars

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

The natural gas market is pretty quiet in early trading on Wednesday as we continue to see downward pressure overall. All things being equal, this is a market that is in the worst time of year for it typically, unless of course there is some type of heatwave, and right now there is no heatwave in the US to draw down supply.

Supply is extraordinarily abundant, and as long as that’s the case, it’s difficult for natural gas to rise in price. That being said, it’s difficult to short down here as well as it is so beaten down; the $2.50 level is an obvious support level just below.

Abundant Supply and Seasonal Weakness Limit Natural Gas Upside

Due to the psychology being part of what’s going on, plus we are rolling over into the September contract, and while later September can be somewhat cool, it is not winter, and natural gas demand still doesn’t pick up. This is a market that typically is quiet this time of year, as there isn’t much to do with gas.

Short-term rallies could appear; those would more likely than not be based on heatwaves. That, more likely than not, offers plenty of opportunities for traders willing to stick with the seasonal pattern. To the upside, if we were to break above the $3 level, that would at least be a very bullish sign in the short term, but again, this time of year, it’s hard for rallies to last for any significant amount of time. This market continues to see a lot of oversupply, and that’s the biggest issue here. That being said, there is a Federal Reserve decision today, and this could cause a tremor, but the supply/demand situation is the same.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade natural gas, please visit our educational area.