Key Insights:
- XRP’s Market Performance: XRP drops 0.78% on Tuesday, ending at $0.5206 after 2.63% fall Monday.
- SEC v Ripple Developments: Ongoing lawsuit sees no major motions; Ripple’s filings have minimal impact.
- US Election Twist: Impact on XRP’s Future.
Tuesday Overview
On Tuesday, XRP declined by 0.78%. Following a 2.63% fall on Monday, XRP ended the day at $0.5206. Despite another bearish session, XRP avoided sub-$0.50 for the fourth consecutive session.
XRP Avoids Sub-$0.50 but Remains in a Bear Trap over the SEC
There were no significant Court motions or filings in the ongoing SEC v Ripple case. Administrative filings from the Ripple Defense team had no impact on XRP.
However, the defense team informed Judge Torres of their availability for trial in Q2 2024. While the information does not directly affect investor sentiment, the fact that Q2 2024 dates are in discussion reflects the likely duration of the case.
For investors hoping for a swift end to the SEC v Ripple case, there is also the matter of the SEC appeal to consider. The XRP community awaits the Ripple objection to the SEC motion for interlocutory appeal. Ripple must file its opposition by September 1, after which the SEC has one week to respond to any Ripple objections.
Legal experts estimate an SEC appeal to last one year. If Judge Torres approves the SEC motion and denies the Ripple objection to pausing the ongoing SEC case, the case will likely extend into 2025. However, the SEC appeal will be the focal point for the crypto market.
One curveball is the US Presidential Election. A Republican Party victory would end SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s tenor and the era of regulation by enforcement. Timing could be everything for XRP holders and the Ripple team. The US go to the polls on November 5, 2024. If the SEC drags its heels, it could be a positive outcome for Ripple and XRP holders.
Ripple Price Forecast
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See all Ripple forecastsHeadwinds Likely to Linger into 2024
Looking beyond the SEC v Ripple Case, the SEC assault on the US digital asset space is unlikely to end soon. However, the SEC cases against Binance, Coinbase (COIN), and Ripple will define the US digital asset space until the November 2024 US Presidential election.
Investors should consider the implications of the SEC charges and not just updates from the cases. Binance faces intense scrutiny after the SEC filed charges and will continue to feel the heat.
Uncertainty toward the future of a crypto-spot ETF market will also test buyer appetite. The SEC remains an influential authority and will remain so until US lawmakers deliver a crypto regulatory framework that drives innovation but protects investors.
XRP Price Action
Daily Chart
The Daily Chart showed XRP/USD hovering above the $0.4920 – $0.4780 support band. The bearish start to the week left XRP below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.
Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, 31.20 reflects bearish sentiment. The RSI aligns with the EMAs supporting a fall through the $0.4920 – $0.4780 support band to retarget sub-$0.47. However, avoiding the $0.4920 – $0.4780 support band would signal a possible break out from the 200-day EMA and give the bulls a run at the $0.5750 – $0.5900 resistance band.
4-Hourly Chart
Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, XRP holds above the $0.4920 – $0.4780 support band. However, XRP sits below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, reaffirming the bearish near-term price signals.
The 43.71 14-4H RSI reflects bearish sentiment, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the RSI aligns with the EMAs, signaling a return to sub-$0.50 and a fall through the $0.4920 – $0.4780 support band. However, an XRP move through the 50-day EMA would give the bulls a run at the lower level of the $0.5750 – $0.5900 resistance band.
