BTC-Spot ETF Market Inflows Remain Elevated Despite GBTC Outflow Spike
On Thursday (Mar 14), BTC declined by 2.35%, ending the session at $71,434. Significantly, BTC ended an eight-session winning streak despite reaching a new all-time high of $73,810.
BTC-spot ETF market flow for Wednesday (Mar 13) drove buyer demand for BTC early in the session, delivering the new ATH.
According to BitMEX Research, the BTC-spot ETF market saw total net inflows of $683.7 million on March 13. Total net inflows were below the record high of $1,045.1 million on March 12. A jump in net outflows from Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and a pullback in iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) net inflows impacted the headline number.
GBTC saw net outflows of $276.5 million, up from $79.0 million. IBIT saw net inflows fall from $849.0 million to $586.5 million.
IBIT held the number one spot by net inflows on Mar 12, while Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) retook the second spot. FBTC saw net inflows climb from $51.6 million (Mar 12) to $281.5 million (Mar 13).
However, US economic indicators from Thursday could impact BTC-spot ETF market flows.
US Producer Prices Reduce Bets on an H1 2024 Fed Rate Cut
US producer prices increased by 1.6% year-on-year in February, according to figures on Thursday. In January, producer prices were up 1.0%. Economists forecast a 1.1% increase in producer prices.
The hotter-than-expected numbers reduced bets on an H1 2024 Fed rate cut, sending US Treasury yields higher. Reducing bets on a Fed rate cut put pressure on riskier assets. BTC fell to a Thursday session low of $68,554 before retaking the $71,000 handle.
Significantly, the shift in sentiment toward an H1 2024 Fed rate cut impacted BTC-spot ETF flows for Thursday (Mar 14).
Bitcoin Price Forecast
Every new Bitcoin analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all Bitcoin forecasts
BTC-Spot ETF Market Facing Net Outflows for the First Time Since March 1
According to Farside Investors, GBTC saw net outflows of $276.5 million on Thursday (Mar 14). Significantly, FBTC saw net inflows tumble from $281.5 million (Mar 13) to $13.7 million (Mar 14).
The pullback in net inflows coincided with the hotter-than-expected US producer price numbers.
For the BTC-spot ETF market to avoid total net outflows, IBIT must see net inflows above $212.7 million.
However, housing sector data from China and PBoC inaction may have contributed to early BTC losses on Friday. House prices in China fell by 1.4% in February after declining by 0.7% in January. Economists forecast a 0.3% fall. The PBoC also disappointed the markets, leaving the one-year MLF rate at 4.5%. Economists expected the PBoC to cut the one-year MLF to 4.4%.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin Analysis
BTC hovered well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming the bullish price signals.
A BTC break above the $69,000 resistance level would support a move to the all-time high of $73,810 (Mar 14). A return to the ATH would bring the $75,000 handle into play.
BTC-spot ETF market flow data and US economic data are the focal points.
However, a drop below the $66,000 handle could signal a fall to the $64,000 support level.
The 14-Daily RSI reading, 61.68, suggests a BTC return to the ATH of $73,810 before entering overbought territory.
Ethereum Analysis
ETH remained well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price signals.
An ETH break above the $3,835 resistance level would support a move to the Mar 12 high of $4,091. An ETH return to the Mar 12 high would give the bulls a run at the $4,200 handle.
ETH-spot ETF-related chatter also needs consideration.
However, an ETH drop below the $3,600 handle could signal a fall to the $3,480 support level.
The 14-period Daily RSI at 59.18 indicates an ETH return to the $4,000 handle before entering overbought territory.
