The Week Ahead: Broadcom AI Test, Payrolls and Fed Risk Set September’s Tone

Market Overview

U.S. equities finished last week higher despite renewed concern that the Federal Reserve may not be finished raising interest rates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 53,559.99, up 0.53% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite finished at 26,402.42, up 0.85%, while the S&P 500 ended at 7,711.76, up 0.49%.

The market enters September with greater clarity on two issues that have driven stocks for much of the year: artificial intelligence spending and Federal Reserve policy. NVIDIA’s latest earnings reinforced the view that demand for AI infrastructure remains strong. The company extended its streak of earnings and revenue beats and projected revenue growth of about 70% next year, above expectations near 46%. Management said its outlook remains supply constrained, with customer demand implying growth closer to 100%.

The Federal Reserve is the other side of the trade. At Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the central bank’s 2% PCE inflation target and said inflation remains elevated. He described economic growth as solid, the labor market as stable and financial conditions as not clearly restrictive. Futures markets increased the implied probability of a September rate hike to roughly 60%, up from about 35% before the speech.

September has historically been the weakest month of the year for stocks. This year also brings midterm-election uncertainty. However, the market enters the month with earnings growth still strong, AI demand holding up, credit spreads tight and volatility low. The main question is whether incoming labor and inflation data support Warsh’s message or force the market to reduce rate-hike expectations again.

Key Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, August 31

Before the Open

Science Applications International (SAIC), est. $2.31 per share

Economic Releases

All Day, Omdia Total Vehicle Sales, forecast 16.3M, prior 16.3M

After the Close

No major reports scheduled

Tuesday, September 1

Before the Open

Medtronic (MDT), est. $1.39 per share

Nio (NIO), est. -$0.33 per share

Economic Releases

13:05 GMT, Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr Speaks

13:45 GMT, Final Manufacturing PMI, forecast 53.3, prior 53.2

14:00 GMT, ISM Manufacturing PMI, forecast 55.2, prior 55.6

14:00 GMT, ISM Manufacturing Prices, forecast 71.2, prior 71.1

14:00 GMT, JOLTS Job Openings, forecast 7.33M, prior 7.36M

14:00 GMT, Construction Spending m/m, forecast 0.0%, prior -0.1%

20:30 GMT, API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

After the Close

Dell Technologies (DELL), est. $4.91 per share. Investors will watch AI server demand, margins and enterprise hardware guidance.

Palo Alto Networks (PANW), est. $0.98 per share. Billings growth, cybersecurity demand and forward guidance will be the key issues.

Credo Technology (CRDO), est. $1.17 per share

MongoDB (MDB), est. $1.62 per share

GitLab (GTLB), est. $0.18 per share

Wednesday, September 2

Before the Open

Brown-Forman (BF.B), est. $0.37 per share

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI), est. $1.12 per share

Economic Releases

12:15 GMT, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, forecast 47K, prior 44K

14:00 GMT, Factory Orders m/m, forecast 0.6%, prior -0.3%

14:30 GMT, Crude Oil Inventories, prior 0.1M

18:00 GMT, Federal Reserve Beige Book

After the Close

Broadcom (AVGO), est. $3.24 per share. Revenue is expected near $29.4 billion. Investors will watch AI networking, custom chip demand, software revenue and forward guidance.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), est. $0.93 per share

Snowflake (SNOW), est. $0.45 per share

NetApp (NTAP), est. $2.12 per share

C3.ai (AI), est. -$0.25 per share

Thursday, September 3

Before the Open

Ciena (CIEN), est. $1.72 per share

Campbell Soup (CPB), est. $0.39 per share

Economic Releases

09:30 GMT, Challenger Job Cuts y/y, prior -46.1%

12:30 GMT, Initial Jobless Claims, forecast 205K, prior 203K

12:30 GMT, Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q, forecast 1.4%, prior 1.4%

12:30 GMT, Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q, forecast 1.3%, prior 1.3%

12:30 GMT, Trade Balance, forecast -$86.4B, prior -$73.3B

12:30 GMT, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller Speaks

13:45 GMT, Final Services PMI, forecast 56.8, prior 56.8

14:00 GMT, ISM Services PMI, forecast 54.1, prior 54.1

14:30 GMT, Natural Gas Storage, prior 15B

After the Close

Lululemon Athletica (LULU), est. $1.80 per share. Investors will watch full-price sales, China demand and management guidance.

DocuSign (DOCU), est. $1.08 per share

Zscaler (ZS), est. $1.09 per share

Samsara (IOT), est. $0.16 per share

Ambarella (AMBA), est. $0.17 per share

Friday, September 4

Before the Open

Korn Ferry (KFY), est. $1.36 per share

RH (RH), est. $0.38 per share

Economic Releases

12:30 GMT, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, forecast 0.3%, prior 0.1%

12:30 GMT, Non-Farm Employment Change, forecast 58K, prior -23K

12:30 GMT, Unemployment Rate, forecast 4.1%, prior 4.1%

After the Close

No major reports scheduled

Central Bank Activity

Tuesday, September 1

Michael Barr, Federal Reserve Governor, 13:05 GMT

Thursday, September 3

Christopher Waller, Federal Reserve Governor, 12:30 GMT

Markets will monitor comments from Barr and Waller for additional insight into the rate outlook following Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. The employment report, wage data and services activity will carry more weight than general comments because they will either support or challenge the case for another rate increase.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Dow Jones: 53,559.99 (+0.53%), support at 51,542.06, 49,900.81, the 52-week SMA at 49,080.61, 48,757.73 and 45,057.28, resistance at 54,744.33.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index

Nasdaq: 26,402.42 (+0.85%), support at 24,425.34, the 52-week SMA at 23,976.30, 23,173.24 and 20,987.12, resistance at 26,875.52 and 27,190.21.

Weekly S&P 500 Index

S&P 500: 7,711.76 (+0.49%), support at 7,313.92, 7,237.85, the 52-week SMA at 7,029.58 and 6,316.91, resistance at 7,816.70.

All major indices remain above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an intact long-term uptrend.

Outlook

AI demand and spending will be the first corporate test of September. Dell, Palo Alto Networks, Broadcom, Snowflake and Hewlett Packard Enterprise will provide fresh readings on enterprise technology budgets, networking demand, data infrastructure and software monetization. Strong guidance would keep the AI growth trade supported. Weak guidance would raise new questions about how much of the capital-spending cycle is already priced into technology shares.

The Fed remains the primary market risk. Warsh has left the door open to another rate hike if inflation stays elevated. Friday’s employment report is the week’s most important economic release. A firm payroll number, steady unemployment rate and stronger wage growth would support the higher-rate trade. Softer labor data would reduce the odds of a September move and give equities room to extend their advance.

September seasonality and midterm-election uncertainty could limit the upside, but the broader trend remains constructive as long as earnings growth and economic activity hold up. The major indices enter the new month above their rising 52-week moving averages. AI guidance, labor data, inflation expectations and the Fed’s reaction will determine whether buyers can keep control or whether sellers force a test of the support levels outlined above.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.