XRP Eyes $0.48 on SEC v Ripple Sentiment and Court Rulings

Key Insights:

• On Saturday, XRP rose by 1.05% to end the day at $0.44830.
• Market sentiment toward the SEC v Ripple case and easing fear of a Deutsche Bank collapse provided price support.
• The technical indicators remain bullish, signaling a return to $0.50.

On Sunday, XRP rose by 1.05%. Following a 4.21% rally on Saturday, XRP ended the week up by 15.96% to $0.44830. XRP avoided sub-$0.44 for the first time since November 2022.

A mixed start to the day saw XRP fall to an early low of $0.44104. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4230, XRP rallied to a mid-morning high of $0.46378. However, coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4647, XRP eased back to end the day at $0.44830.

Hopes of a Ripple Win Against the SEC Delivered a Bullish Session

It was another quiet session, with no updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case to influence investor sentiment. The lack of updates left XRP in the hands of SEC v Ripple chatter and the Court filings that support the more optimistic outlooks for Ripple and XRP.

Following the Ripple filings last Monday that referenced Judge rulings from the Voyager Digital bankruptcy hearings, hopes of a Ripple victory supported a bullish week.

Ripple President Monica Long shared the market optimism of a Ripple win, with Amicus Curiae attorney John Deaton adding,

“XRP has the most attractive risk/reward ratio IMO. The Judge’s ruling is coming down w/in the next few weeks (maybe this week). If the SEC wins, what’s the downside from 0.45? Ripple appeals, and we get the status quo. Ripple wins and it’s made clear XRP isn’t a security. Upside?”

As investors consider the implications of a Ripple victory, rulings on the Hinman Documents could also materially influence the regulatory landscape.

William Hinman has been a central figure in the SEC v Ripple case. The former Director of the Division of Corporation Finance delivered a famous 2018 speech, contentiously saying that bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH) are not securities.

Hinman’s reference to ethereum was contentious because Hinman’s former and current employee, Simpson Thacher, is part of a group that promotes Enterprise Ethereum. Hinman returned to Simpson Thacher after departing the SEC.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse shared his views on the speech-related documents, saying,

“When those come to light, I think you will see more kind of like, how is it possible for the SEC to decide to bring a case against Ripple given what they were saying within their own walls.”

The Day Ahead

Investors should monitor the crypto news wire for updates from the SEC v Ripple. Commentary relating to last week’s filings and Court rulings on the Hinman Documents and the Summary Judgment Reply Briefs will influence.

With the SEC and US lawmakers targeting the crypto asset space, a Ripple victory could materially affect the US crypto regulatory landscape and give voice to more crypto-friendly lawmakers on Capitol Hill.

However, a lack of SEC v Ripple case updates would continue to leave regulator and lawmaker chatter to draw interest. Binance and Coinbase (COIN) remain in the spotlight.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was up 0.88% to $0.45224. A bullish start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.45318 before easing back.

Technical Indicators

XRP needs to avoid the $0.4510 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4610 and the Sunday high of $0.46378. A return to $0.46 would signal a bullish session. However, the broader crypto market and SEC v Ripple chatter would need to support a breakout.

In the case of another extended rally, XRP would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4738 and resistance at $0.48. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.4965.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4383 into play. However, barring an extended broad-based crypto sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.42. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.4283 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.4056.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent bullish signals.

At the time of writing, XRP sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.42702. The 50-day EMA pulled further away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA. The EMAs delivered bullish signals.

A hold above the Major Support Levels and the 50-day EMA ($0.42702) would support a breakout from R1 ($0.4610) to target R2 ($0.4738) and $0.48. However, a fall through S1 ($0.4383) would bring the S2 ($0.4283) and the 50-day ($0.42702) into play. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.